|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for June Gasoline(NYMEX) as of Feb 29, 2008 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
| Tested Years |
14 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Higher |
8 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
16 |
10 |
18 |
15 |
11 |
| Exceeded High |
8 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
|
| Scenario Percentage |
100% |
90% |
75% |
64% |
73% |
100% |
81% |
100% |
94% |
67% |
0% |
| Avg Max Increase |
12.89% |
8.45% |
6.14% |
11.20% |
14.21% |
10.03% |
14.39% |
19.66% |
13.06% |
8.05% |
|
| Max Increase |
52.68% |
28.27% |
9.78% |
17.58% |
23.63% |
23.34% |
32.68% |
36.66% |
31.66% |
18.99% |
|
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
15 |
17 |
23 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
15 |
|
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.57% |
-0.89% |
-1.82% |
-1.41% |
-0.83% |
-1.25% |
-3.76% |
-1.50% |
-3.84% |
-1.96% |
|
| Max Decline |
-3.26% |
-3.53% |
-7.12% |
-5.04% |
-2.84% |
-6.87% |
-10.51% |
-5.03% |
-14.14% |
-9.92% |
|
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
11 |
4 |
15 |
3 |
9 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
|
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
| Tested Years |
14 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Lower |
6 |
6 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
6 |
12 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
| Penetrated Low |
4 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
67% |
67% |
64% |
80% |
82% |
60% |
67% |
67% |
75% |
43% |
100% |
| Avg Max Decline |
7.34% |
6.24% |
10.87% |
10.91% |
10.49% |
15.64% |
17.75% |
8.15% |
11.59% |
7.54% |
100.00% |
| Max Decline |
9.62% |
16.98% |
18.12% |
19.01% |
24.38% |
39.48% |
35.67% |
18.62% |
18.26% |
10.60% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
21 |
17 |
21 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
10 |
4 |
16 |
1 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-3.85% |
-2.83% |
-0.39% |
-2.06% |
-1.02% |
-2.75% |
-0.16% |
-2.89% |
-1.55% |
-1.84% |
100.00% |
| Max Increase |
-10.55% |
-9.12% |
-2.94% |
-4.79% |
-6.30% |
-6.95% |
-1.47% |
-9.52% |
-4.71% |
-2.60% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
20 |
9 |
8 |
3 |
15 |
10 |
7 |
12 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| Action |
|
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
|
| High |
220.94 |
215.67 |
225.53 |
249.81 |
261.65 |
266.48 |
271.65 |
277.50 |
|
|
|
| Low |
212.50 |
201.09 |
210.51 |
216.43 |
242.76 |
240.21 |
240.20 |
240.30 |
|
|
|
| Close/Last |
217.34 |
209.55 |
222.06 |
249.81 |
242.76 |
262.83 |
252.47 |
269.09 |
|
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