|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for May Gasoline(NYMEX) as of Jan 31, 2008 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
13 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Higher |
8 |
8 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
10 |
17 |
15 |
| Exceeded High |
8 |
8 |
10 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
14 |
|
| Scenario Percentage |
100% |
100% |
91% |
75% |
64% |
73% |
100% |
87% |
100% |
82% |
0% |
| Avg Max Increase |
10.37% |
13.21% |
8.06% |
6.31% |
11.65% |
15.64% |
11.65% |
13.33% |
23.79% |
12.36% |
|
| Max Increase |
26.43% |
52.64% |
28.22% |
9.90% |
17.01% |
24.88% |
26.92% |
31.39% |
47.38% |
26.74% |
|
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
17 |
15 |
16 |
24 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
|
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.88% |
-0.94% |
-0.82% |
-1.74% |
-1.44% |
-0.67% |
-1.40% |
-3.72% |
-2.62% |
-3.08% |
|
| Max Decline |
-6.34% |
-3.54% |
-3.56% |
-7.87% |
-5.12% |
-2.64% |
-7.47% |
-11.73% |
-8.87% |
-8.74% |
|
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
17 |
8 |
10 |
5 |
14 |
3 |
9 |
11 |
8 |
4 |
|
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
13 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Lower |
5 |
7 |
6 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
12 |
5 |
7 |
| Penetrated Low |
3 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
60% |
57% |
50% |
73% |
80% |
82% |
64% |
57% |
67% |
80% |
100% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.47% |
8.20% |
7.81% |
10.59% |
11.73% |
11.26% |
14.58% |
18.22% |
8.03% |
9.56% |
100.00% |
| Max Decline |
11.29% |
11.42% |
16.86% |
19.23% |
19.21% |
25.17% |
40.25% |
34.05% |
17.21% |
14.73% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
22 |
22 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
11 |
14 |
1 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.83% |
-3.77% |
-0.91% |
-0.31% |
-2.18% |
-1.33% |
-3.43% |
0.35% |
-4.06% |
-2.77% |
100.00% |
| Max Increase |
-3.67% |
-10.59% |
-2.70% |
-2.95% |
-5.02% |
-7.00% |
-9.03% |
-1.66% |
-10.04% |
-5.59% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
9 |
19 |
6 |
9 |
3 |
13 |
17 |
6 |
17 |
2 |
1 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
|
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
| High |
215.58 |
220.84 |
215.52 |
226.33 |
250.81 |
262.75 |
267.60 |
272.58 |
|
|
|
| Low |
206.60 |
212.35 |
200.00 |
209.25 |
216.92 |
242.96 |
240.25 |
239.17 |
|
|
|
| Close/Last |
215.18 |
217.24 |
209.40 |
222.71 |
250.81 |
242.96 |
263.73 |
252.37 |
|
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