|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for April Gasoline(NYMEX) as of Dec 31, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
11 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Higher |
5 |
9 |
12 |
14 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
9 |
16 |
| Exceeded High |
3 |
9 |
10 |
13 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
11 |
12 |
9 |
|
| Scenario Percentage |
60% |
100% |
83% |
93% |
80% |
60% |
73% |
100% |
80% |
100% |
0% |
| Avg Max Increase |
11.22% |
10.70% |
12.74% |
7.77% |
6.07% |
11.31% |
15.85% |
12.17% |
15.66% |
13.55% |
|
| Max Increase |
12.95% |
27.24% |
54.45% |
28.85% |
10.08% |
17.20% |
27.12% |
33.52% |
40.61% |
33.60% |
|
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
26 |
23 |
18 |
14 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
|
| Avg Max Decline |
-4.84% |
-1.20% |
-0.75% |
-1.17% |
-2.76% |
-1.86% |
-0.87% |
-1.32% |
-6.08% |
-3.00% |
|
| Max Decline |
-11.05% |
-6.60% |
-3.88% |
-8.21% |
-9.33% |
-5.20% |
-2.63% |
-7.90% |
-22.67% |
-10.79% |
|
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
4 |
15 |
8 |
10 |
5 |
12 |
3 |
8 |
16 |
4 |
|
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
11 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
| Closed Lower |
6 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
13 |
6 |
| Penetrated Low |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
6 |
| Scenario Percentage |
33% |
60% |
60% |
71% |
70% |
82% |
82% |
64% |
57% |
62% |
100% |
| Avg Max Decline |
5.70% |
6.31% |
7.12% |
7.92% |
9.81% |
11.04% |
11.86% |
15.22% |
19.32% |
6.72% |
100.00% |
| Max Decline |
9.25% |
10.72% |
10.05% |
16.44% |
19.70% |
20.71% |
26.28% |
42.20% |
36.09% |
13.98% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
12 |
21 |
20 |
11 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
19 |
13 |
12 |
1 |
| Avg Max Increase |
0.24% |
-1.06% |
-4.55% |
-2.57% |
-0.71% |
-2.48% |
-1.82% |
-3.99% |
0.36% |
-1.45% |
100.00% |
| Max Increase |
-1.14% |
-3.81% |
-11.01% |
-10.38% |
-2.69% |
-6.20% |
-8.03% |
-11.22% |
-1.76% |
-5.94% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
3 |
6 |
26 |
10 |
10 |
4 |
13 |
16 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| Action |
|
|
|
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| High |
210.20 |
214.33 |
219.69 |
214.22 |
225.33 |
250.41 |
263.00 |
267.75 |
|
|
|
| Low |
196.59 |
205.25 |
211.00 |
199.19 |
208.00 |
216.00 |
242.10 |
239.59 |
|
|
|
| Close/Last |
205.07 |
213.98 |
215.99 |
208.10 |
222.01 |
250.41 |
242.16 |
263.53 |
|
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