MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		11	23	24	27	30	31	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		6	16	17	14	15	20	17	18	16	15	20
Exceeded High		6	15	15	11	14	18	15	15	10	12	19
Scenario Percentage		100%	94%	88%	79%	93%	90%	88%	83%	63%	80%	95%
Avg Max Increase		7.22%	9.56%	8.68%	8.49%	9.99%	10.79%	9.40%	7.62%	11.16%	14.12%	8.45%
Max Increase		11.65%	25.45%	33.12%	15.86%	27.86%	60.66%	32.50%	20.66%	20.48%	26.51%	18.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		24	17	16	20	17	17	17	15	24	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-4.31%	-2.47%	-1.80%	-2.79%	-2.34%	-1.51%	-2.88%	-2.75%	-2.47%	-3.79%	-1.56%
Max Decline		-13.18%	-8.60%	-7.88%	-9.89%	-13.16%	-8.84%	-10.51%	-10.64%	-6.43%	-12.74%	-7.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	8	8	12	9	7	6	16	6	5
2018 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		11	23	24	27	30	31	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		5	6	7	13	15	11	16	15	17	18	13
Penetrated Low		2	1	5	7	11	8	11	11	14	13	7
Scenario Percentage		40%	17%	71%	54%	73%	73%	69%	73%	82%	72%	54%
Avg Max Decline		7.72%	9.66%	9.29%	9.37%	9.39%	10.77%	13.08%	14.17%	15.53%	16.33%	15.86%
Max Decline		9.58%	9.66%	21.77%	16.88%	30.96%	25.75%	49.13%	56.50%	47.23%	33.63%	21.92%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	4	17	17	16	18	18	15	17	18	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-5.35%	-3.41%	-0.24%	-2.37%	-2.32%	-1.80%	-1.56%	-2.45%	-3.12%	-4.84%
Max Increase		-5.10%	-5.35%	-6.45%	-2.10%	-8.68%	-12.38%	-12.11%	-7.45%	-7.15%	-12.85%	-20.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		19	12	11	4	8	12	10	7	2	10	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		No
High	164.90	156.23	151.26	154.65	149.01	143.30	150.35	152.03	164.40	172.71	181.02	181.53
Low	152.88	148.84	137.82	140.00	132.62	127.88	134.13	141.15	148.53	153.69	170.47	166.19
Close/Last	153.85	152.42	146.80	141.02	141.91	138.80	150.22	151.98	158.59	171.38	174.12	179.58