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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Platinum(NYM) as of Jul 08, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 30 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 35 35 35
Closed Higher 12 15 11 16 15 17 20 16 12 23 12
Exceeded High 9 11 8 12 13 16 13 12 9 17 8
Scenario Percentage 75% 73% 73% 75% 87% 94% 65% 75% 75% 74% 67%
Avg Max Increase 14.51% 9.77% 8.81% 16.18% 19.91% 12.46% 7.65% 9.81% 11.49% 10.87% 5.34%
Max Increase 42.44% 34.21% 13.76% 77.11% 76.99% 51.13% 16.40% 19.27% 29.00% 42.20% 9.54%
Avg Days To Max Increase 13 14 20 23 17 14 12 21 22 9 8
Avg Max Decline -0.03% -2.15% -2.36% -2.47% -3.23% -1.87% -2.31% -3.05% -3.50% -1.33% -1.16%
Max Decline -2.44% -7.94% -6.93% -8.24% -8.56% -7.14% -12.36% -11.23% -6.56% -6.65% -4.69%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 7 12 11 12 5 7 10 4 6 2
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Not Yet
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 30 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 35 35 35
Closed Lower 18 18 22 17 18 16 14 17 23 12 23
Penetrated Low 12 15 17 13 11 7 10 15 14 11 15
Scenario Percentage 67% 83% 77% 76% 61% 44% 71% 88% 61% 92% 65%
Avg Max Decline 11.05% 7.85% 7.37% 13.37% 10.79% 8.21% 7.71% 8.38% 10.20% 9.61% 18.56%
Max Decline 20.81% 17.67% 17.38% 32.83% 25.00% 19.12% 25.05% 24.60% 26.00% 20.62% 62.79%
Avg Days To Max Decline 24 14 13 21 17 11 16 20 19 14 11
Avg Max Increase -1.90% -3.52% -2.54% -2.07% -1.01% -2.71% -1.43% -3.29% -2.44% -2.92% -1.97%
Max Increase -6.52% -11.27% -9.98% -8.97% -5.70% -11.39% -8.27% -15.08% -5.53% -7.53% -8.18%
Avg Days to Max Increase 14 9 5 7 8 3 7 9 10 9 6
2003 Contract Condition               Yes Yes    
Action               Yes No    
High   561.9 577.2 586.6 597.2 648.0 677.0 694.0 634.5 678.0 684.0
Low   544.2 548.0 562.7 571.5 592.5 625.0 610.5 590.0 594.2 633.0
Close/Last   551.5 560.3 570.4 587.4 646.4 659.5 632.4 599.3 636.8 670.6