MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		35	35	35	37	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	13	19	16	19	19	23	21	29	29	16
Exceeded High		13	13	11	10	17	14	19	20	27	20	13
Scenario Percentage		76%	100%	58%	63%	89%	74%	83%	95%	93%	69%	81%
Avg Max Increase		7.98%	10.61%	9.80%	14.47%	8.71%	9.19%	14.16%	19.39%	11.09%	8.83%	7.97%
Max Increase		19.15%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	14.05%	78.46%	77.88%	51.68%	22.55%	14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	16	12	15	18	19	17	15	14	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.36%	-1.58%	-2.02%	-0.56%	-1.72%	-2.20%	-3.27%	-2.89%	-2.10%	-2.10%	-1.57%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-7.77%	-6.49%	-2.57%	-8.59%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-9.16%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	9	3	5	6	13	12	5	5	3
2017 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes						Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		35	35	35	37	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	22	16	21	23	24	22	24	16	16	28
Penetrated Low		15	14	13	13	19	18	16	12	9	10	12
Scenario Percentage		83%	64%	81%	62%	83%	75%	73%	50%	56%	63%	43%
Avg Max Decline		8.34%	7.36%	7.55%	10.55%	9.53%	7.74%	10.95%	10.23%	7.40%	6.74%	3.89%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	12.45%	20.32%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	19.47%	13.88%	10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	20	20	18	16	21	17	11	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.43%	-1.32%	-3.17%	-2.37%	-3.42%	-3.39%	-2.35%	-1.70%	-2.58%	-1.30%	-0.77%
Max Increase		-6.06%	-5.03%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-12.67%	-10.54%	-7.84%	-6.68%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	11	14	11	9	7	9	6	7	2
2017 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	1086.3	1091.6	1028.8	1157.2	1199.1	1108.5	1038.9	1026.4	956.1	1008.7	1047.8	1030.2
Low	947.9	985.6	965.0	1028.8	1058.8	1019.5	932.0	907.8	893.0	903.6	988.0	932.9
Close/Last	1083.6	985.6	1027.9	1154.8	1058.8	1038.5	982.3	913.3	905.7	996.5	1031.0	948.2