Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Mar 31, 2017
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   35 35 35 37 42 43 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 12 19 16 20 19 24 22 28 28 17
Exceeded High   14 12 11 10 17 14 20 20 26 20 13
Scenario Percentage   78% 100% 58% 63% 85% 74% 83% 91% 93% 71% 76%
Avg Max Increase   7.72% 10.11% 9.66% 14.47% 8.71% 9.19% 13.66% 19.39% 11.32% 8.83% 7.97%
Max Increase   19.15% 44.15% 45.59% 42.20% 34.53% 14.05% 78.46% 77.88% 51.68% 22.55% 14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 16 17 12 15 18 18 17 14 14 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.56% -1.72% -2.68% -0.56% -1.72% -2.20% -3.06% -2.89% -2.14% -2.10% -1.57%
Max Decline   -7.97% -7.77% -7.19% -2.57% -8.59% -9.88% -11.07% -9.16% -8.76% -9.84% -6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 8 8 3 5 6 12 12 5 5 3
2017 Contract Condition     Yes Yes           Yes Yes  
Action     Yes Yes           Yes Not Yet  
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   35 35 35 37 42 43 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   17 23 16 21 22 24 21 23 17 17 27
Penetrated Low   14 14 13 13 18 18 15 12 9 10 12
Scenario Percentage   82% 61% 81% 62% 82% 75% 71% 52% 53% 59% 44%
Avg Max Decline   8.79% 7.36% 7.55% 10.33% 9.36% 7.46% 11.53% 10.23% 7.40% 6.74% 3.89%
Max Decline   19.41% 14.87% 12.45% 20.32% 26.64% 17.72% 32.80% 25.33% 19.47% 13.88% 10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 14 20 21 18 15 22 17 11 12 9
Avg Max Increase   -2.66% -1.32% -3.17% -2.26% -3.61% -3.16% -2.20% -1.70% -2.58% -1.30% -0.77%
Max Increase   -6.06% -5.03% -12.61% -9.49% -12.67% -10.54% -7.84% -6.68% -11.78% -8.00% -2.27%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 9 11 15 11 9 7 9 6 7 2
2017 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes
Action   Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes No     Not Yet
High 1086.3 1091.6 1028.8 1157.2 1199.1 1108.5 1038.9 1026.4 956.1 1008.7 1047.8 1030.2
Low 947.9 985.6 965.0 1028.8 1058.8 1019.5 932.0 907.8 893.0 903.6 988.0 932.9
Close/Last 1083.6 985.6 1027.9 1154.8 1058.8 1038.5 982.3 913.3 905.7 996.5 1031.0 948.2

Banner

Newsflash

Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas --- Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?

From crude oil at an all-time high above $145/barrel --- collapsing down to $35. A run back up to almost $115, a three-year churn, and a plunge from $107 to barely $42 in only nine months. Sellers above $60 eventually drove prices down to barely $26! Major producers are trying to support prices, currently in a range of $40-55. Can seasonal influences be muted for long?

Know the seasonal trends with MRCI's new 2017 Energy Report! https://goo.gl/08atzl