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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYM) as of Dec 31, 2005
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 31 31 31 31 34 35 37 37 37 37 37
Closed Higher 18 11 15 12 16 14 21 18 20 22 15
Exceeded High 14 10 7 8 13 11 17 15 19 16 10
Scenario Percentage 78% 91% 47% 67% 81% 79% 81% 83% 95% 73% 67%
Avg Max Increase 7.90% 11.13% 11.55% 16.36% 9.17% 9.89% 13.95% 19.48% 11.36% 8.07% 7.97%
Max Increase 19.15% 44.15% 45.59% 42.20% 34.53% 14.05% 78.46% 77.88% 51.68% 22.55% 14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 18 11 15 14 19 19 18 13 13 15
Avg Max Decline -2.46% -2.49% -2.38% -0.72% -2.30% -2.05% -2.11% -2.91% -2.12% -2.16% -1.84%
Max Decline -7.97% -11.01% -7.19% -2.57% -8.59% -9.88% -8.40% -8.21% -7.38% -9.84% -6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 7 6 8 7 8 10 12 5 6 3
2006 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes    
Action   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes        
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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 31 31 31 31 34 35 37 37 37 37 37
Closed Lower 13 20 16 19 18 21 16 19 17 15 21
Penetrated Low 12 13 12 13 13 17 12 11 9 9 14
Scenario Percentage 92% 65% 75% 68% 72% 81% 75% 58% 53% 60% 67%
Avg Max Decline 9.06% 7.01% 8.09% 10.67% 8.96% 7.56% 13.83% 10.75% 7.40% 7.27% 17.33%
Max Decline 19.41% 14.87% 15.33% 20.82% 17.74% 17.72% 32.80% 25.33% 19.47% 17.30% 62.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 15 19 23 17 15 22 16 11 11 14
Avg Max Increase -2.63% -1.44% -3.00% -2.40% -3.84% -3.24% -2.18% -1.25% -2.58% -1.52% -3.47%
Max Increase -5.93% -5.50% -12.61% -9.49% -11.35% -10.54% -7.79% -5.93% -11.78% -8.00% -14.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 8 12 15 12 6 8 7 6 7 -97
2006 Contract Condition Yes     Yes       Yes      
Action No     No       Not Yet      
High 871.2 886.8 894.4 919.7 935.3 950.0 1006.0 1030.0 990.0    
Low 839.3 858.7 846.3 880.0 899.9 918.5 926.0 955.0 980.0    
Close/Last 852.3 873.0 894.4 891.5 935.3 943.2 985.3 979.0 981.8