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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYM) as of May 16, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jun Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 31 31 31 31 33 34 35 35 35 35 35
Closed Higher 18 11 15 12 15 13 19 17 18 21 13
Exceeded High 14 10 7 8 12 10 15 14 17 15 9
Scenario Percentage 78% 91% 47% 67% 80% 77% 79% 82% 94% 71% 69%
Avg Max Increase 7.90% 11.13% 11.55% 16.36% 8.96% 9.50% 14.78% 20.14% 11.94% 8.10% 8.30%
Max Increase 19.15% 44.15% 45.59% 42.20% 34.53% 14.05% 78.46% 77.88% 51.68% 22.55% 14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 18 11 15 14 19 20 18 13 13 15
Avg Max Decline -2.46% -2.49% -2.38% -0.72% -2.57% -2.17% -2.39% -3.16% -2.05% -2.20% -1.72%
Max Decline -7.97% -11.01% -7.19% -2.57% -8.59% -9.88% -8.40% -8.21% -7.38% -9.84% -6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 7 6 8 7 8 12 10 5 6 3
2003 Contract Condition           Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action           Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jun Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 31 31 31 31 33 34 35 35 35 35 35
Closed Lower 13 20 16 19 18 21 16 18 17 14 21
Penetrated Low 12 13 12 13 13 17 12 11 9 9 14
Scenario Percentage 92% 65% 75% 68% 72% 81% 75% 61% 53% 64% 67%
Avg Max Decline 9.06% 7.01% 8.09% 10.67% 8.96% 7.56% 13.83% 10.75% 7.40% 7.27% 17.33%
Max Decline 19.41% 14.87% 15.33% 20.82% 17.74% 17.72% 32.80% 25.33% 19.47% 17.30% 62.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 15 19 23 17 15 22 16 11 11 14
Avg Max Increase -2.63% -1.44% -3.00% -2.40% -3.84% -3.24% -2.18% -1.25% -2.58% -1.52% -3.47%
Max Increase -5.93% -5.50% -12.61% -9.49% -11.35% -10.54% -7.79% -5.93% -11.78% -8.00% -14.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 8 12 15 12 6 8 7 6 7 -97
2003 Contract Condition         Yes           Yes
Action         No           Yes
High       562.3 563.9 580.7 590.1 602.0 660.0 691.0 707.0
Low       536.5 531.1 551.1 566.2 573.0 595.0 645.0 620.0
Close/Last       560.3 553.5 563.8 573.9 594.4 658.9 672.5 648.4