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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYME) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 26 26 26
Closed Higher 15 11 14 9 10 10 14 9 11 13 12
Exceeded High 12 6 10 7 6 10 12 7 10 8 10
Scenario Percentage 80% 55% 71% 78% 60% 100% 86% 78% 91% 62% 83%
Avg Max Increase 16.02% 13.51% 8.50% 18.16% 10.37% 13.50% 11.09% 14.92% 11.68% 21.37% 15.40%
Max Increase 53.95% 27.65% 25.15% 34.77% 18.77% 32.52% 33.42% 41.40% 34.87% 44.44% 22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase 15 18 19 21 15 15 14 14 14 12 13
Avg Max Decline -1.41% -1.39% -2.08% -3.08% -6.13% -0.62% -2.40% -1.01% -2.00% -0.62% -0.54%
Max Decline -8.33% -6.08% -5.29% -6.41% -14.96% -3.62% -9.56% -4.49% -6.33% -2.70% -3.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline 4 9 3 16 9 5 8 3 11 1 2
2003 Contract Condition         Yes   Yes Yes Yes    
Action         No   Yes Yes No    
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 26 26 26
Closed Lower 6 11 7 14 14 14 11 16 14 13 14
Penetrated Low 4 8 5 12 10 10 9 12 9 9 10
Scenario Percentage 67% 73% 71% 86% 71% 71% 82% 75% 64% 69% 71%
Avg Max Decline 5.35% 7.43% 11.95% 12.96% 10.22% 8.91% 10.87% 10.63% 14.33% 11.58% 26.54%
Max Decline 9.42% 15.89% 18.68% 33.11% 26.56% 21.01% 23.66% 30.77% 22.18% 26.53% 60.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline 10 15 17 15 16 15 17 17 18 12 15
Avg Max Increase -4.62% -1.58% -3.33% -1.65% -2.19% -1.79% -1.64% -3.00% -3.70% -2.75% -4.38%
Max Increase -12.92% -7.05% -15.44% -6.16% -8.54% -6.44% -5.58% -8.38% -8.19% -7.46% -19.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase 8 6 6 7 8 5 6 10 10 6 8
2003 Contract Condition           Yes       Yes Yes
Action           Yes       Not Yet Yes
High       169.20 200.00 192.25 192.00 212.00 236.00 217.50 213.00
Low       149.70 154.25 172.00 165.00 173.00 195.50 182.50 187.00
Close/Last       157.35 185.30 181.35 182.00 203.90 215.15 208.15 188.80