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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jun 30, 2017
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   20 26 29 33 35 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Higher   12 15 16 24 18 25 19 15 15 25 14
Exceeded High   8 12 14 22 12 17 12 10 14 23 12
Scenario Percentage   67% 80% 88% 92% 67% 68% 63% 67% 93% 92% 86%
Avg Max Increase   8.78% 18.91% 21.32% 14.65% 12.64% 13.92% 14.73% 9.87% 16.09% 10.39% 10.17%
Max Increase   23.93% 84.24% 65.00% 52.21% 31.84% 54.33% 44.61% 19.33% 32.57% 34.45% 19.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 20 16 17 15 20 17 15 16 12 12
Avg Max Decline   -2.81% -3.89% -2.01% -2.10% -1.82% -1.73% -4.17% -5.09% -3.20% -3.16% -1.21%
Max Decline   -12.27% -11.92% -7.91% -8.23% -6.67% -5.58% -11.94% -16.18% -17.10% -10.44% -6.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 14 7 7 3 5 12 8 9 9 2
2017 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes    
Action     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   20 26 29 33 35 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Lower   8 11 13 8 17 14 21 25 25 15 26
Penetrated Low   5 7 8 7 10 10 18 16 18 12 14
Scenario Percentage   63% 64% 62% 88% 59% 71% 86% 64% 72% 80% 54%
Avg Max Decline   13.21% 10.77% 10.14% 3.60% 8.34% 12.31% 11.08% 14.50% 10.15% 12.14% 8.12%
Max Decline   26.18% 43.23% 31.35% 6.73% 15.99% 19.44% 25.58% 33.91% 28.99% 41.59% 26.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 15 12 7 16 15 15 16 17 17 16
Avg Max Increase   -2.17% -2.08% -3.73% -3.11% -2.68% -2.66% -2.18% -2.52% -3.56% -1.51% -2.25%
Max Increase   -6.99% -5.23% -12.69% -7.68% -8.65% -15.56% -10.40% -9.41% -12.24% -5.96% -9.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 6 12 8 8 8 10 8 11 4 5
2017 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes         Yes      
Action   No   No         Not Yet      
High 725.80 716.45 775.70 754.75 797.50 796.60 815.00 829.25 827.00 891.35    
Low 660.50 617.85 622.25 657.25 711.75 750.45 741.55 770.60 747.70 809.05    
Close/Last 725.80 622.70 775.70 685.35 755.20 772.40 798.50 826.45 815.95 836.65    

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