|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jun 30, 2008 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
13 |
18 |
21 |
25 |
27 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Higher |
6 |
11 |
10 |
19 |
13 |
20 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
18 |
10 |
| Exceeded High |
4 |
8 |
9 |
17 |
9 |
13 |
9 |
6 |
11 |
15 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
67% |
73% |
90% |
89% |
69% |
65% |
69% |
55% |
100% |
83% |
80% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.31% |
21.52% |
22.77% |
14.20% |
12.10% |
14.16% |
18.20% |
11.16% |
15.94% |
11.29% |
11.56% |
| Max Increase |
16.15% |
84.24% |
65.00% |
52.21% |
27.16% |
54.33% |
44.61% |
19.33% |
32.57% |
34.45% |
19.96% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
16 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.29% |
-5.30% |
-0.97% |
-2.26% |
-2.52% |
-1.36% |
-3.93% |
-6.80% |
-2.98% |
-2.73% |
-1.10% |
| Max Decline |
-5.08% |
-11.92% |
-7.91% |
-8.23% |
-6.67% |
-5.58% |
-8.69% |
-16.18% |
-17.10% |
-10.44% |
-6.07% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
2 |
12 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
14 |
9 |
6 |
9 |
3 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
No |
|
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
13 |
18 |
21 |
25 |
27 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Lower |
7 |
7 |
11 |
5 |
14 |
10 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
13 |
21 |
| Penetrated Low |
5 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
10 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
71% |
57% |
64% |
100% |
57% |
80% |
83% |
70% |
75% |
77% |
52% |
| Avg Max Decline |
13.21% |
14.29% |
10.80% |
3.61% |
7.31% |
12.66% |
11.95% |
13.92% |
9.76% |
8.74% |
14.01% |
| Max Decline |
26.18% |
43.23% |
31.35% |
6.73% |
15.99% |
19.44% |
25.58% |
32.51% |
28.66% |
13.74% |
68.10% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
20 |
16 |
11 |
3 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-2.17% |
-1.58% |
-3.95% |
-2.83% |
-2.09% |
-2.03% |
-2.06% |
-2.49% |
-2.94% |
-1.55% |
-3.48% |
| Max Increase |
-6.99% |
-2.55% |
-12.69% |
-6.20% |
-8.65% |
-15.56% |
-7.88% |
-9.41% |
-12.24% |
-5.96% |
-13.92% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
6 |
2 |
12 |
4 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
3 |
7 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| High |
396.20 |
392.40 |
387.90 |
401.15 |
593.70 |
592.40 |
479.15 |
467.15 |
494.50 |
|
|
| Low |
367.90 |
358.60 |
355.90 |
370.85 |
410.60 |
437.05 |
426.60 |
403.00 |
417.50 |
|
|
| Close/Last |
387.00 |
361.60 |
387.90 |
401.15 |
580.35 |
453.85 |
426.60 |
439.00 |
464.75 |
|
|
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