MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYME) as of Oct 04, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	12	16	18	22	24	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher	5	9	8	16	12	16	11	10	11	15	8
Exceeded High	3	6	7	14	8	10	8	6	11	14	6
Scenario Percentage	60%	67%	88%	88%	67%	63%	73%	60%	100%	93%	75%
Avg Max Increase	9.51%	25.38%	25.37%	14.94%	12.53%	13.70%	19.46%	11.16%	15.94%	10.05%	12.23%
Max Increase	16.15%	84.24%	65.00%	52.21%	27.16%	54.33%	44.61%	19.33%	32.57%	34.45%	19.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	19	15	15	15	20	20	15	14	12	13
Avg Max Decline	-1.83%	-5.86%	-1.19%	-1.76%	-2.42%	-1.99%	-4.24%	-6.80%	-2.98%	-2.49%	-0.64%
Max Decline	-5.08%	-11.92%	-7.91%	-8.23%	-6.67%	-5.58%	-8.69%	-16.18%	-17.10%	-10.44%	-6.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	11	5	6	4	3	15	9	6	9	3
2002 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	No				Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	12	16	18	22	24	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower	7	7	10	5	12	9	15	16	15	11	18
Penetrated Low	5	4	6	5	8	7	13	11	11	9	9
Scenario Percentage	71%	57%	60%	100%	67%	78%	87%	69%	73%	82%	50%
Avg Max Decline	13.21%	14.29%	12.03%	3.61%	7.31%	11.78%	11.65%	13.13%	10.03%	8.19%	16.46%
Max Decline	26.18%	43.23%	31.35%	6.73%	15.99%	19.44%	25.58%	32.51%	28.66%	13.23%	68.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	16	12	3	16	16	15	19	17	15	14
Avg Max Increase	-2.17%	-1.58%	-3.69%	-2.83%	-2.09%	-2.41%	-2.04%	-2.42%	-3.03%	-1.65%	-2.98%
Max Increase	-6.99%	-2.55%	-12.69%	-6.20%	-8.65%	-15.56%	-7.88%	-9.41%	-12.24%	-5.96%	-13.92%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	2	13	4	8	5	10	9	12	3	7
2002 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
High			447.50	437.00	389.75	396.00	389.65	383.50	358.00	336.00	380.00
Low			446.00	367.00	366.00	360.50	355.50	347.00	314.00	314.50	313.00
Close/Last			446.00	367.00	368.80	387.90	355.50	348.15	318.80	319.45	327.80