|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 31, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jun |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
17 |
18 |
19 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
| Closed Higher |
6 |
7 |
7 |
15 |
9 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
25 |
15 |
| Exceeded High |
4 |
5 |
7 |
12 |
7 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
15 |
18 |
6 |
| Scenario Percentage |
67% |
71% |
100% |
80% |
78% |
88% |
69% |
87% |
88% |
72% |
40% |
| Avg Max Increase |
17.06% |
9.84% |
11.51% |
11.18% |
13.23% |
14.29% |
14.80% |
22.71% |
26.14% |
18.44% |
10.71% |
| Max Increase |
34.24% |
18.37% |
27.79% |
32.84% |
43.03% |
35.66% |
32.67% |
86.19% |
85.89% |
72.27% |
26.13% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
21 |
13 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-3.53% |
-3.56% |
-0.53% |
-3.91% |
-0.47% |
-1.73% |
-1.41% |
-3.95% |
-1.74% |
-2.88% |
-3.99% |
| Max Decline |
-6.36% |
-11.93% |
-4.12% |
-9.29% |
-4.50% |
-5.66% |
-4.67% |
-12.72% |
-7.57% |
-9.01% |
-8.11% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
16 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
4 |
10 |
3 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
No |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
No |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jun |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
17 |
18 |
19 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
| Closed Lower |
11 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
17 |
11 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
5 |
16 |
| Penetrated Low |
9 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
13 |
8 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
2 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
82% |
73% |
83% |
90% |
76% |
73% |
73% |
64% |
62% |
40% |
50% |
| Avg Max Decline |
11.58% |
8.41% |
7.30% |
8.63% |
8.05% |
13.01% |
12.73% |
11.73% |
9.25% |
4.42% |
20.15% |
| Max Decline |
23.01% |
18.71% |
19.55% |
18.12% |
23.04% |
22.13% |
27.97% |
44.17% |
29.35% |
4.72% |
60.83% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
14 |
12 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
20 |
3 |
8 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.58% |
-1.90% |
-0.84% |
-1.94% |
-2.61% |
-3.12% |
-3.87% |
-1.47% |
-5.63% |
-2.87% |
-5.66% |
| Max Increase |
-6.65% |
-8.34% |
-3.21% |
-11.96% |
-12.56% |
-7.26% |
-12.62% |
-5.24% |
-14.46% |
-4.79% |
-11.79% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
9 |
9 |
2 |
13 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
3 |
11 |
6 |
12 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
| High |
398.95 |
394.65 |
391.80 |
384.60 |
378.65 |
356.75 |
389.95 |
385.75 |
379.00 |
|
|
| Low |
364.70 |
373.55 |
377.70 |
373.95 |
329.75 |
338.50 |
358.30 |
345.00 |
347.65 |
|
|
| Close/Last |
385.00 |
384.00 |
378.35 |
377.15 |
342.50 |
356.75 |
379.00 |
353.35 |
378.20 |
|
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