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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Natural Gas(NYM) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14
Closed Higher 8 4 3 4 7 10 9 9 7 6 6
Exceeded High 5 2 3 4 7 9 9 8 5 4 6
Scenario Percentage 63% 50% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 89% 71% 67% 100%
Avg Max Increase 4.78% 7.70% 11.59% 18.51% 13.96% 17.90% 19.27% 17.66% 13.35% 12.85% 14.03%
Max Increase 9.63% 12.72% 25.70% 37.67% 26.98% 48.89% 51.66% 46.20% 20.70% 29.39% 23.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 5 15 21 26 16 18 13 24 17 16
Avg Max Decline -5.54% -1.54% -1.96% -1.34% -2.40% -2.07% -2.89% -3.60% -6.47% -11.22% -5.37%
Max Decline -12.68% -3.00% -2.90% -3.47% -3.33% -6.16% -6.26% -9.20% -11.97% -18.51% -11.41%
Avg Days to Max Decline 9 3 7 6 16 7 7 8 16 14 5
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes    
Action Yes     Yes Yes No   Yes Yes    
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14
Closed Lower 5 9 10 9 5 3 4 4 7 8 8
Penetrated Low 4 6 9 8 3 1 4 4 7 6 8
Scenario Percentage 80% 67% 90% 89% 60% 33% 100% 100% 100% 75% 100%
Avg Max Decline 5.28% 9.73% 9.08% 7.72% 4.67% 1.04% 11.48% 20.74% 16.55% 12.61% 21.02%
Max Decline 9.66% 14.36% 18.69% 14.78% 6.65% 1.04% 25.63% 35.19% 26.65% 19.34% 42.90%
Avg Days To Max Decline 23 19 14 19 23 3 22 23 24 14 20
Avg Max Increase -2.90% -1.25% -2.44% -1.65% -4.47% -0.26% -3.95% -3.41% -7.80% -4.41% -9.49%
Max Increase -4.08% -1.72% -6.49% -10.41% -10.77% -0.26% -11.31% -10.27% -13.65% -13.49% -28.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase 18 9 7 6 18 3 9 9 15 18 11
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes     Yes Yes
Action   No No       Yes     Yes Yes
High 4.010 4.060 3.965 4.510 4.980 6.100 5.770 5.855 6.470 6.660 5.645
Low 3.760 3.700 3.750 3.880 4.540 4.790 5.030 4.975 5.340 5.370 4.580
Close/Last 3.946 3.898 3.893 4.431 4.804 5.516 5.100 5.490 6.296 5.453 4.718