MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Natural Gas(NYM) as of Aug 16, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12
Closed Higher	7	3	3	3	6	8	8	7	6	6	6
Exceeded High	4	2	3	3	6	8	8	6	4	4	6
Scenario Percentage	57%	67%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	86%	67%	67%	100%
Avg Max Increase	5.25%	7.70%	11.59%	12.13%	11.79%	14.03%	19.52%	19.46%	15.25%	12.85%	14.03%
Max Increase	9.63%	12.72%	25.70%	13.94%	17.05%	39.42%	51.66%	46.20%	20.70%	29.39%	23.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	5	15	20	26	15	19	14	28	17	16
Avg Max Decline	-5.36%	-1.54%	-1.96%	-2.61%	-2.76%	-2.31%	-2.47%	-3.18%	-8.14%	-11.22%	-5.37%
Max Decline	-12.68%	-3.00%	-2.90%	-3.47%	-3.33%	-6.16%	-5.26%	-9.20%	-11.97%	-18.51%	-11.41%
Avg Days to Max Decline	10	3	7	7	18	7	7	10	19	14	5
2002 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No				Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12
Closed Lower	4	8	8	8	4	3	3	4	6	6	6
Penetrated Low	3	6	8	7	3	1	3	4	6	4	6
Scenario Percentage	75%	75%	100%	88%	75%	33%	100%	100%	100%	67%	100%
Avg Max Decline	6.28%	9.73%	7.88%	6.71%	4.67%	1.04%	14.49%	20.74%	16.75%	11.65%	21.84%
Max Decline	9.66%	14.36%	14.29%	11.38%	6.65%	1.04%	25.63%	35.19%	26.65%	21.19%	42.90%
Avg Days To Max Decline	30	19	13	18	23	3	29	23	25	12	21
Avg Max Increase	-2.91%	-1.25%	-2.17%	-2.18%	-4.47%	-0.26%	-4.87%	-3.41%	-7.61%	-5.38%	-10.17%
Max Increase	-4.08%	-1.72%	-6.49%	-10.41%	-10.77%	-0.26%	-11.31%	-10.27%	-13.65%	-13.49%	-28.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase	23	9	5	7	18	3	12	9	14	24	11
2002 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	Yes	No				Yes	Yes	Yes
High	3.360	3.440	3.429	3.055	2.730	2.708	3.645	3.880	3.970	3.605	3.320
Low	2.870	2.840	2.865	2.770	2.375	2.395	2.600	3.175	3.280	3.145	2.800
Close/Last	2.907	3.408	2.921	2.787	2.448	2.606	3.387	3.848	3.309	3.273	2.954