MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Natural Gas(NYM) as of Aug 15, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14
Closed Higher 8 9 4 3 3 7 10 9 9 7 6
Exceeded High 7 6 2 3 3 7 9 9 8 5 1
Scenario Percentage 88% 67% 50% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 89% 71% 17%
Avg Max Increase 8.45% 6.53% 8.12% 12.54% 22.71% 14.60% 18.51% 20.18% 18.65% 13.91% 9.86%
Max Increase 23.34% 15.36% 13.57% 26.45% 39.26% 27.60% 48.98% 52.12% 47.41% 23.43% 9.86%
Avg Days To Max Increase 19 18 11 19 20 26 18 18 13 22 28
Avg Max Decline -2.25% -4.66% -1.37% -3.08% -1.75% -2.76% -2.58% -3.11% -4.15% -6.97% -12.28%
Max Decline -4.89% -13.01% -2.65% -4.16% -4.20% -4.76% -6.53% -6.27% -11.03% -12.50% -12.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 7 3 16 4 14 10 11 8 16 12
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
Action Yes Yes     Yes Yes No   Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14
Closed Lower 5 4 9 10 10 6 3 4 4 7 8
Penetrated Low 5 4 6 9 7 4 1 4 4 7 6
Scenario Percentage 100% 100% 67% 90% 70% 67% 33% 100% 100% 100% 75%
Avg Max Decline 4.24% 5.06% 10.08% 9.41% 8.62% 5.38% 1.04% 12.37% 22.37% 15.66% 19.62%
Max Decline 9.94% 8.58% 14.41% 18.52% 14.30% 7.79% 1.04% 27.18% 36.75% 27.07% 37.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline 11 23 22 15 20 16 3 20 23 19 17
Avg Max Increase -2.41% -2.97% -1.24% -2.62% -2.40% -4.53% 0.00% -4.21% -5.16% -8.83% -4.22%
Max Increase -6.55% -4.40% -2.03% -7.11% -11.65% -11.28% 0.00% -11.46% -10.17% -14.97% -11.11%
Avg Days to Max Increase 15 18 7 7 6 16 3 9 13 11 8
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes       Yes     Yes
Action     No No       Yes     Yes
High 4.011 4.010 4.060 4.020 4.537 5.000 6.200 5.865 5.920 6.530 6.680
Low 3.529 3.760 3.700 3.770 3.895 4.570 4.820 5.050 5.000 5.340 5.300
Close/Last 3.845 3.950 3.916 3.913 4.452 4.859 5.591 5.135 5.510 6.310 5.411