MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Natural Gas(NYM) as of Mar 31, 2005
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15
Closed Higher	7	9	7	3	3	5	7	10	10	9	8
Exceeded High	6	7	5	2	3	5	7	8	10	8	5
Scenario Percentage	86%	78%	71%	67%	100%	100%	100%	80%	100%	89%	63%
Avg Max Increase	12.52%	8.01%	6.83%	8.18%	13.41%	18.95%	15.31%	21.80%	19.94%	17.76%	6.88%
Max Increase	31.96%	22.45%	15.07%	13.68%	26.86%	40.28%	27.83%	51.42%	53.57%	49.30%	12.22%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	17	20	10	15	18	27	19	18	12	12
Avg Max Decline	-2.29%	-2.27%	-4.73%	-1.45%	-5.32%	-0.88%	-3.00%	-2.62%	-4.11%	-4.81%	-3.62%
Max Decline	-6.37%	-4.34%	-12.87%	-2.81%	-11.21%	-5.20%	-6.30%	-7.01%	-6.67%	-14.73%	-12.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	8	9	3	21	5	11	9	12	8	2
2005 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15
Closed Lower	6	5	5	10	11	9	7	3	4	5	7
Penetrated Low	5	5	5	6	8	7	4		4	4	7
Scenario Percentage	83%	100%	100%	60%	73%	78%	57%	0%	100%	80%	100%
Avg Max Decline	4.87%	4.33%	4.96%	10.31%	10.94%	9.54%	5.97%		13.70%	19.32%	20.20%
Max Decline	7.93%	9.80%	8.57%	14.72%	19.56%	15.02%	8.85%		28.35%	34.31%	41.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	13	23	22	17	20	22		20	20	17
Avg Max Increase	-1.79%	-2.46%	-3.40%	-1.24%	-4.67%	-2.42%	-4.71%		-4.64%	-3.46%	-6.19%
Max Increase	-3.24%	-6.49%	-4.97%	-2.09%	-16.99%	-12.14%	-11.88%		-11.28%	-10.19%	-16.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	16	16	4	9	6	9		7	8	8
2005 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes
High	6.160	6.190	6.650	7.400	7.400	6.815	6.580	6.935	7.900
Low	5.840	5.942	5.870	6.280	6.500	6.150	5.840	6.180	6.780
Close/Last	6.130	5.942	6.456	7.143	6.750	6.180	6.472	6.930	7.843