MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 31, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12
Closed Higher	6	7	6	2	3	3	6	7	8	7	6
Exceeded High	5	6	4	2	3	3	6	6	8	6	4
Scenario Percentage	83%	86%	67%	100%	100%	100%	100%	86%	100%	86%	67%
Avg Max Increase	13.82%	8.43%	7.87%	8.18%	13.41%	15.14%	13.22%	18.53%	21.11%	19.01%	6.38%
Max Increase	31.96%	22.45%	15.07%	13.68%	26.86%	16.03%	20.01%	41.48%	53.57%	45.35%	12.22%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	16	20	10	15	20	27	19	18	12	12
Avg Max Decline	-1.47%	-2.09%	-4.43%	-1.45%	-5.32%	-3.38%	-3.40%	-3.09%	-3.54%	-4.57%	-4.40%
Max Decline	-3.42%	-4.34%	-12.87%	-2.81%	-11.21%	-5.20%	-6.30%	-7.01%	-6.67%	-14.73%	-12.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline	11	4	10	3	21	7	12	11	11	9	1
2002 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes			No				Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12
Closed Lower	4	4	3	8	8	8	5	3	3	4	6
Penetrated Low	4	4	3	6	7	6	4		3	4	6
Scenario Percentage	100%	100%	100%	75%	88%	75%	80%	0%	100%	100%	100%
Avg Max Decline	5.56%	2.96%	6.33%	10.31%	9.71%	8.62%	5.97%		17.38%	17.75%	22.70%
Max Decline	7.93%	4.11%	8.57%	14.72%	17.13%	11.37%	8.85%		28.35%	28.02%	41.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline	23	15	30	22	15	19	22		25	19	18
Avg Max Increase	-2.07%	-1.46%	-3.07%	-1.24%	-2.91%	-3.19%	-4.71%		-5.70%	-3.46%	-6.54%
Max Increase	-3.24%	-2.48%	-4.57%	-2.09%	-7.26%	-12.14%	-11.88%		-11.28%	-10.19%	-16.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	17	23	4	6	6	9		9	8	8
2002 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No
High	3.781	3.880	3.315	3.420	3.380	3.374	2.670	2.656	3.620	3.840	3.930
Low	3.370	3.050	2.830	2.808	2.812	2.730	2.320	2.340	2.535	3.130	3.190
Close/Last	3.660	3.113	2.869	3.368	2.884	2.730	2.391	2.536	3.347	3.823	3.222