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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 16, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Closed Higher 6 7 8 8 8 4 4 4 6 9 10
Exceeded High 4 3 7 6 6 1 4 4 6 7 9
Scenario Percentage 67% 43% 88% 75% 75% 25% 100% 100% 100% 78% 90%
Avg Max Increase 6.16% 6.89% 12.09% 8.71% 6.48% 22.06% 22.03% 26.58% 19.56% 24.90% 13.17%
Max Increase 10.64% 8.87% 33.28% 23.54% 13.64% 22.06% 31.67% 54.48% 36.11% 54.87% 35.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase 27 18 21 18 18 17 20 19 22 13 16
Avg Max Decline -2.55% -3.21% -1.86% -1.89% -4.80% -3.62% -2.10% -3.19% -3.80% -3.69% -3.33%
Max Decline -4.89% -7.32% -6.85% -5.03% -13.36% -3.62% -4.42% -6.21% -7.50% -8.72% -7.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline 15 15 8 4 13 5 4 6 10 8 4
2003 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Not Yet  
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Closed Lower 5 6 5 5 4 9 9 9 7 4 3
Penetrated Low 3 4 4 4 4 6 8 8 5 2 3
Scenario Percentage 60% 67% 80% 80% 100% 67% 89% 89% 71% 50% 100%
Avg Max Decline 6.07% 6.61% 5.40% 5.07% 6.05% 12.83% 12.91% 11.11% 6.93% 4.45% 35.67%
Max Decline 12.45% 12.50% 8.21% 10.08% 9.47% 16.84% 22.83% 17.49% 10.54% 6.24% 57.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline 22 16 16 13 29 24 21 16 16 17 1
Avg Max Increase -8.60% -3.22% -1.87% -2.35% -7.25% -1.58% -3.59% -2.93% -5.92% -6.56% -11.11%
Max Increase -13.25% -12.65% -3.75% -6.61% -20.13% -3.01% -9.12% -16.97% -13.73% -11.73% -15.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase 15 17 4 11 25 6 8 7 4 13 15
2003 Contract Condition Yes   Yes     Yes         Yes
Action Yes   Yes     No         Yes
High 4.012 3.950 3.770 3.976 4.000 4.035 3.970 4.517 5.080 6.842 6.320
Low 3.595 3.499 3.470 3.444 3.690 3.700 3.703 3.880 4.520 4.970 4.995
Close/Last 3.595 3.716 3.521 3.784 3.895 3.853 3.858 4.429 5.027 6.071 5.060