MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 27, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Closed Higher 8 9 7 7 9 9 4 4 5 6 9
Exceeded High 6 6 3 6 7 7 1 4 5 6 7
Scenario Percentage 75% 67% 43% 86% 78% 78% 25% 100% 100% 100% 78%
Avg Max Increase 13.68% 5.84% 6.12% 9.42% 8.50% 7.39% 32.21% 29.33% 31.10% 26.67% 18.15%
Max Increase 40.87% 12.56% 10.32% 12.85% 22.81% 15.14% 32.21% 36.90% 88.30% 59.03% 51.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 18 17 19 15 16 17 22 20 18 20
Avg Max Decline -1.29% -2.07% -1.86% -2.24% -2.53% -4.57% -5.63% -2.35% -3.42% -3.23% -3.85%
Max Decline -3.57% -4.92% -3.92% -7.28% -6.23% -13.58% -5.63% -5.51% -10.03% -9.15% -10.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline 3 12 6 10 5 13 5 3 6 3 5
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes   Yes
Action Yes Yes     No Yes     Yes   Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Closed Lower 4 5 7 7 5 5 10 10 9 8 5
Penetrated Low 2 2 4 4 4 5 8 8 8 7 3
Scenario Percentage 50% 40% 57% 57% 80% 100% 80% 80% 89% 88% 60%
Avg Max Decline 4.22% 9.57% 7.22% 5.79% 5.44% 7.59% 11.16% 14.39% 13.53% 7.12% 36.86%
Max Decline 5.13% 14.17% 14.07% 8.44% 11.15% 10.63% 18.45% 25.34% 19.96% 17.25% 59.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline 23 21 21 10 7 27 22 20 18 20 7
Avg Max Increase -2.79% -11.61% -4.67% -1.97% -2.80% -7.35% -1.75% -4.43% -4.05% -7.55% -7.21%
Max Increase -5.58% -12.86% -13.78% -4.62% -7.55% -21.08% -4.78% -11.45% -23.19% -15.47% -12.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase 12 18 17 2 7 17 3 9 6 7 13
2004 Contract Condition     Yes Yes     Yes Yes   Yes  
Action     Yes No     Yes No   Yes  
High 4.960 5.340 5.490 5.161 5.115 4.950 5.112 4.810 5.550 5.950 5.510
Low 4.500 4.810 4.950 4.650 4.693 4.665 4.590 4.530 4.670 5.080 5.030
Close/Last 4.887 5.311 5.034 4.731 4.801 4.802 4.724 4.602 5.277 5.113 5.416