MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 16, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Closed Higher 9 9 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 3 4
Exceeded High 8 9 7 5 1 6 5 6 1 3 2
Scenario Percentage 89% 100% 100% 71% 20% 86% 83% 75% 17% 100% 50%
Avg Max Increase 13.18% 14.88% 11.17% 6.79% 7.54% 14.20% 19.43% 16.92% 63.61% 49.24% 20.26%
Max Increase 31.04% 47.84% 40.31% 13.99% 7.54% 25.21% 27.84% 34.35% 63.61% 61.54% 22.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 20 14 27 26 21 18 22 17 16 13
Avg Max Decline -1.45% -2.02% -2.64% -3.85% -10.13% -3.25% -1.41% -6.53% -7.41% -2.75% 3.14%
Max Decline -4.31% -6.51% -6.85% -5.23% -10.13% -7.86% -2.74% -14.84% -7.41% -9.36% 1.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 7 8 20 36 6 3 17 5 1 4
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes Yes     Yes       Yes
Action No   Yes Yes     Yes       Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Closed Lower 3 3 5 5 7 6 7 5 7 10 9
Penetrated Low   3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 9 9
Scenario Percentage 0% 100% 80% 80% 71% 83% 71% 100% 71% 90% 100%
Avg Max Decline   11.23% 13.94% 11.33% 8.13% 6.88% 6.57% 10.59% 19.13% 23.14% 21.22%
Max Decline   20.31% 26.74% 17.21% 19.37% 10.02% 12.87% 18.65% 27.37% 41.55% 36.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   26 19 23 14 11 8 24 24 18 19
Avg Max Increase   -4.47% -2.30% -6.20% -2.44% -2.45% -3.41% -9.07% -3.46% -6.50% -8.26%
Max Increase   -11.49% -6.00% -13.78% -8.56% -6.22% -10.37% -27.12% -9.72% -16.00% -39.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase   14 8 12 14 9 6 17 3 10 8
2004 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes     Yes Yes   Yes Yes Not Yet  
High 6.150 5.880 5.850 6.460 6.760 6.010 5.780 5.510 6.150 5.385 7.400
Low 4.940 5.200 5.120 5.540 5.800 5.220 5.235 5.033 4.910 4.870 5.090
Close/Last 5.746 5.245 5.695 6.446 5.849 5.309 5.346 5.212 5.119 4.962 6.189