MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December NASDAQ 100(CME) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8
Closed Higher				5	2	5	3	4	4	6	7
Exceeded High				5	2	4	2	4	4	6	6
Scenario Percentage				100%	100%	80%	67%	100%	100%	100%	86%
Avg Max Increase				9.86%	11.29%	8.94%	6.66%	9.26%	17.06%	17.83%	6.86%
Max Increase				12.53%	14.62%	11.39%	9.68%	18.14%	29.75%	26.95%	12.30%
Avg Days To Max Increase				22	19	21	12	15	23	8	8
Avg Max Decline				-3.30%	-2.35%	-0.67%	-3.29%	-2.34%	-7.08%	-0.86%	-1.50%
Max Decline				-7.11%	-3.59%	-2.77%	-5.35%	-4.34%	-21.51%	-1.77%	-3.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline				16	14	2	4	20	12	3	2
2003 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8
Closed Lower				2	5	2	5	4	4	2	1
Penetrated Low				2	3	1	4	4	2	1
Scenario Percentage				100%	60%	50%	80%	100%	50%	50%	0%
Avg Max Decline				20.49%	13.38%	17.99%	15.45%	15.81%	18.67%	26.18%
Max Decline				20.68%	26.24%	17.99%	35.81%	26.13%	32.73%	26.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline				24	20	5	16	16	19	30
Avg Max Increase				-2.43%	-3.29%	-0.94%	-4.24%	-9.31%	-3.72%	-3.03%
Max Increase				-3.40%	-8.52%	-0.94%	-9.09%	-24.96%	-6.28%	-3.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase				9	7	5	7	20	1	6
2003 Contract Condition									Yes
Action									No
High			1099.50	1122.50	1205.50	1249.50	1301.50	1344.50	1405.00	1442.00	1455.00
Low			1027.00	1029.00	1119.50	1192.00	1208.00	1212.50	1303.00	1306.00	1357.00
Close/Last			1027.00	1114.00	1205.50	1207.00	1281.00	1344.50	1306.00	1418.00	1425.00