MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ 100 Index as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33
Closed Higher		21	18	21	18	22	14	20	19	19	21	22
Exceeded High		15	17	18	16	21	12	17	17	18	19	20
Scenario Percentage		71%	94%	86%	89%	95%	86%	85%	89%	95%	90%	91%
Avg Max Increase		8.94%	7.97%	8.48%	8.38%	5.78%	8.44%	6.46%	6.85%	9.29%	11.05%	5.59%
Max Increase		15.29%	15.72%	17.94%	16.40%	22.95%	12.91%	10.16%	19.67%	30.90%	42.20%	26.42%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	20	21	15	17	20	18	20	20	16	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.45%	-2.41%	-2.47%	-2.51%	-2.66%	-1.74%	-2.68%	-3.06%	-4.05%	-2.03%	-1.16%
Max Decline		-12.33%	-7.29%	-9.12%	-8.23%	-7.61%	-5.58%	-7.48%	-9.37%	-20.96%	-5.04%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	7	8	9	15	6	12	16	10	7	4
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33
Closed Lower		11	14	11	14	10	18	12	13	13	11	11
Penetrated Low		8	12	6	9	7	12	9	7	8	7	4
Scenario Percentage		73%	86%	55%	64%	70%	67%	75%	54%	62%	64%	36%
Avg Max Decline		7.21%	8.76%	7.57%	10.17%	10.15%	8.36%	12.98%	12.07%	17.10%	11.51%	8.49%
Max Decline		14.21%	29.33%	14.29%	23.28%	28.08%	18.55%	35.33%	25.91%	38.56%	33.74%	13.24%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	16	16	20	14	12	15	13	15	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.36%	-3.27%	-1.91%	-3.50%	-2.77%	-2.10%	-2.98%	-5.85%	-2.31%	-1.80%	-5.70%
Max Increase		-9.02%	-15.77%	-2.98%	-6.74%	-9.11%	-6.76%	-9.38%	-23.92%	-6.78%	-3.58%	-19.32%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	7	5	18	6	9	7	14	3	7	5
2017 Contract Condition							Yes			Yes
Action							Yes			No
High	4992.00	5172.25	5358.50	5451.50	5600.00	5813.25	5897.50	5995.75	5995.25	6012.75	6258.25	6426.00
Low	4721.25	4884.50	5128.75	5316.00	5353.50	5568.25	5599.25	5579.50	5750.50	5839.75	5955.75	6194.50
Close/Last	4863.50	5116.75	5330.25	5436.00	5583.50	5788.75	5646.75	5880.25	5988.50	5979.25	6248.50	6365.50