MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September NASDAQ 100(CME) as of Oct 04, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9
Closed Higher				5	3	5	5	3	6	3	4
Exceeded High				3	3	3	5	3	4	2	4
Scenario Percentage				60%	100%	60%	100%	100%	67%	67%	100%
Avg Max Increase				6.07%	10.56%	10.04%	10.75%	9.48%	9.47%	6.25%	4.57%
Max Increase				13.43%	13.60%	17.38%	14.22%	14.72%	11.75%	8.60%	6.73%
Avg Days To Max Increase				9	25	25	20	25	20	7	8
Avg Max Decline				1.63%	-4.11%	-3.37%	-3.78%	-2.60%	-2.18%	-3.58%	-1.18%
Max Decline				0.84%	-5.73%	-6.15%	-8.94%	-4.33%	-4.32%	-5.86%	-2.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline				2	10	9	21	12	3	4	2
2004 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes	Yes
Action				No				Yes	No

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9
Closed Lower				3	5	3	3	5	2	6	5
Penetrated Low				2	5	2	3	3	1	5	2
Scenario Percentage				67%	100%	67%	100%	60%	50%	83%	40%
Avg Max Decline				7.98%	11.15%	7.68%	15.98%	14.70%	18.60%	10.45%	4.99%
Max Decline				13.24%	28.90%	13.30%	23.50%	28.18%	18.60%	20.85%	9.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline				16	12	3	20	20	5	7	4
Avg Max Increase				-1.13%	-4.70%	2.01%	-2.69%	-4.06%	-1.52%	-1.75%	-5.73%
Max Increase				-3.44%	-14.37%	-0.64%	-3.50%	-10.92%	-1.52%	-4.84%	-9.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase				9	4	1	7	7	8	2	2
2004 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	No	Yes			Yes	Not Yet
High			1478.50	1559.50	1518.50	1497.00	1511.50	1471.00	1528.50	1519.00	1411.00
Low			1432.50	1470.50	1469.00	1374.00	1405.50	1385.00	1447.00	1360.00	1302.00
Close/Last			1475.00	1501.00	1478.50	1444.00	1405.50	1471.00	1521.00	1402.50	1370.00