MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September NASDAQ 100(CME) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8
Closed Higher				4	3	5	5	2	5	3	4
Exceeded High				3	3	3	5	2	4	2	4
Scenario Percentage				75%	100%	60%	100%	100%	80%	67%	100%
Avg Max Increase				6.07%	10.56%	10.04%	10.75%	12.27%	9.47%	6.25%	5.19%
Max Increase				13.43%	13.60%	17.38%	14.22%	14.72%	11.75%	8.60%	8.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase				9	25	25	20	22	20	7	9
Avg Max Decline				1.63%	-4.11%	-3.37%	-3.78%	-3.08%	-2.18%	-3.58%	-1.18%
Max Decline				0.84%	-5.73%	-6.15%	-8.94%	-4.33%	-4.32%	-5.86%	-2.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline				2	10	9	21	17	3	4	2
2003 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8
Closed Lower				3	4	2	2	5	2	5	4
Penetrated Low				2	4	2	2	3	1	4	2
Scenario Percentage				67%	100%	100%	100%	60%	50%	80%	50%
Avg Max Decline				7.98%	12.17%	7.68%	23.24%	14.70%	18.60%	13.02%	9.03%
Max Decline				13.24%	28.90%	13.30%	23.50%	28.18%	18.60%	27.88%	17.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline				16	9	3	25	20	5	8	9
Avg Max Increase				-1.13%	-5.57%	2.01%	-2.87%	-4.06%	-1.52%	-2.04%	-5.73%
Max Increase				-3.44%	-14.37%	-0.64%	-3.50%	-10.92%	-1.52%	-4.84%	-9.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase				9	5	1	9	7	8	2	2
2003 Contract Condition				Yes
Action				Yes
High			1039.50	1098.50	1023.50	1097.00	1125.00	1202.00	1269.00	1320.00	1346.00
Low			993.00	989.50	963.50	962.50	1026.00	1111.50	1186.00	1180.00	1204.00
Close/Last			993.00	989.50	1015.50	1024.00	1111.00	1202.00	1204.50	1279.00	1342.00