MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June NASDAQ 100(CME) as of May 31, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Closed Higher				3	4	2	4	2	3	4	1
Exceeded High				3	4	2	2	2	2	2	1
Scenario Percentage				100%	100%	100%	50%	100%	67%	50%	100%
Avg Max Increase				28.66%	19.75%	15.53%	7.66%	11.67%	7.00%	12.07%	3.14%
Max Increase				41.49%	34.98%	16.63%	13.88%	15.74%	8.38%	12.92%	3.14%
Avg Days To Max Increase				24	20	13	28	23	24	19	17
Avg Max Decline				-0.24%	-0.19%	-5.30%	-4.62%	-4.19%	-5.77%	-2.61%	-4.60%
Max Decline				-0.66%	-3.11%	-11.66%	-11.60%	-5.82%	-7.29%	-5.12%	-4.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline				1	6	5	17	10	13	8	4
2002 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes				Yes
Action				Yes	Yes				Not Yet

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jun	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Closed Lower				2	1	3	1	3	2	1	4
Penetrated Low				2	1	2		3	2	1	2
Scenario Percentage				100%	100%	67%	0%	100%	100%	100%	50%
Avg Max Decline				20.60%	15.81%	13.14%		13.61%	8.35%	23.82%	4.61%
Max Decline				32.41%	15.81%	21.04%		29.81%	14.47%	23.82%	6.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline				22	2	20		3	3	24	8
Avg Max Increase				-3.56%	-18.01%	-10.06%		-3.59%	-1.53%	-2.62%	-4.82%
Max Increase				-5.56%	-18.01%	-16.48%		-6.06%	-1.57%	-2.62%	-8.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase				20	11	14		4	2	1	5
2002 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High			1215.00	1495.50	1642.00	1738.00	1687.00	1542.00	1584.00	1490.00	1354.00
Low			1160.00	1171.50	1435.50	1569.50	1514.00	1340.00	1412.00	1231.00	1144.00
Close/Last			1187.00	1383.00	1611.00	1589.50	1560.50	1367.50	1459.50	1280.00	1230.00