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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(MGE) as of Oct 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 18 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
Closed Higher 8 6 11 13 9 6 12 12 11 11 9
Exceeded High 7 5 9 9 5 2 8 8 9 8 5
Scenario Percentage 88% 83% 82% 69% 56% 33% 67% 67% 82% 73% 56%
Avg Max Increase 4.51% 15.06% 9.78% 13.26% 18.66% 19.26% 12.70% 11.61% 9.67% 7.06% 4.48%
Max Increase 8.06% 35.17% 31.40% 46.52% 31.28% 31.93% 36.88% 19.13% 30.27% 23.47% 7.42%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 16 12 15 19 25 22 17 20 14 14
Avg Max Decline -1.01% -1.48% -0.93% -1.26% -1.32% -3.11% -2.80% -1.49% -1.33% -2.45% -2.00%
Max Decline -2.45% -4.85% -3.83% -6.73% -2.93% -6.81% -9.68% -3.94% -3.76% -5.17% -5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline 9 7 9 4 7 6 6 14 6 13 2
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes         Yes   Yes  
Action Yes Yes Yes         Yes   Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 18 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
Closed Lower 9 14 12 10 14 17 11 11 11 12 14
Penetrated Low 6 10 11 9 14 14 10 9 10 10 10
Scenario Percentage 67% 71% 92% 90% 100% 82% 91% 82% 91% 83% 71%
Avg Max Decline 4.48% 4.23% 4.01% 4.54% 7.05% 8.23% 6.29% 5.49% 5.60% 6.05% 12.07%
Max Decline 7.08% 10.98% 8.43% 9.41% 16.20% 20.77% 12.67% 13.97% 10.91% 18.25% 34.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 16 19 17 19 15 14 17 20 14 15
Avg Max Increase -1.30% -1.82% -2.54% -3.57% -2.30% -2.24% -1.98% -1.78% -1.80% -2.18% -2.17%
Max Increase -1.83% -4.09% -13.20% -12.15% -8.34% -7.13% -6.39% -5.36% -5.20% -5.23% -7.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 12 12 10 10 6 5 6 14 11 6
2004 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes
Action       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes    
High 408.00 424.00 454.25 457.00 450.50 438.00 403.00 366.00 393.75 372.50 365.75
Low 384.00 391.00 406.00 414.00 404.00 391.50 360.00 337.00 357.00 352.00 358.25
Close/Last 405.00 420.00 440.25 428.50 413.50 397.00 360.25 362.50 358.25 366.75 360.50