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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(MGE) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 18 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
Closed Higher 8 6 11 13 9 6 12 12 11 11 9
Exceeded High 7 5 9 9 5 2 8 8 9 8 5
Scenario Percentage 88% 83% 82% 69% 56% 33% 67% 67% 82% 73% 56%
Avg Max Increase 4.51% 15.06% 9.78% 13.26% 18.66% 19.26% 12.70% 11.61% 9.67% 7.06% 4.48%
Max Increase 8.06% 35.17% 31.40% 46.52% 31.28% 31.93% 36.88% 19.13% 30.27% 23.47% 7.42%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 16 12 15 19 25 22 17 20 14 14
Avg Max Decline -1.01% -1.48% -0.93% -1.26% -1.32% -3.11% -2.80% -1.49% -1.33% -2.45% -2.00%
Max Decline -2.45% -4.85% -3.83% -6.73% -2.93% -6.81% -9.68% -3.94% -3.76% -5.17% -5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline 9 7 9 4 7 6 6 14 6 13 2
2003 Contract Condition Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action Yes       No   Yes No   Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 18 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
Closed Lower 9 14 12 10 14 17 11 11 11 12 14
Penetrated Low 6 10 11 9 14 14 10 9 10 10 10
Scenario Percentage 67% 71% 92% 90% 100% 82% 91% 82% 91% 83% 71%
Avg Max Decline 4.48% 4.23% 4.01% 4.54% 7.05% 8.23% 6.29% 5.49% 5.60% 6.05% 12.07%
Max Decline 7.08% 10.98% 8.43% 9.41% 16.20% 20.77% 12.67% 13.97% 10.91% 18.25% 34.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 16 19 17 19 15 14 17 20 14 15
Avg Max Increase -1.30% -1.82% -2.54% -3.57% -2.30% -2.24% -1.98% -1.78% -1.80% -2.18% -2.17%
Max Increase -1.83% -4.09% -13.20% -12.15% -8.34% -7.13% -6.39% -5.36% -5.20% -5.23% -7.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 12 12 10 10 6 5 6 14 11 6
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes    
Action   Yes Yes Yes   No     Yes    
High 376.00 378.00 365.00 355.50 385.25 364.75 377.25 414.50 380.00 389.00 403.50
Low 344.00 356.00 349.00 339.50 341.50 336.00 336.00 370.00 346.25 338.00 367.50
Close/Last 359.50 356.00 354.75 343.50 362.50 340.75 371.25 380.75 364.00 377.75 400.00