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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(MGE) as of Nov 14, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 16 19 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Closed Higher 7 6 10 13 7 5 10 10 10 10 8
Exceeded High 6 5 8 9 4 1 6 7 9 7 4
Scenario Percentage 86% 83% 80% 69% 57% 20% 60% 70% 90% 70% 50%
Avg Max Increase 4.40% 15.06% 10.81% 13.26% 17.62% 6.59% 8.85% 10.53% 9.67% 6.92% 5.10%
Max Increase 8.06% 35.17% 31.40% 46.52% 31.28% 6.59% 18.13% 16.91% 30.27% 23.47% 7.42%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 16 13 15 18 21 24 19 20 15 17
Avg Max Decline -1.15% -1.48% -1.09% -1.26% -0.92% -6.81% -3.68% -1.80% -1.33% -2.42% -2.19%
Max Decline -2.45% -4.85% -3.83% -6.73% -1.80% -6.81% -9.68% -3.94% -3.76% -5.17% -5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 7 10 4 4 11 6 15 6 12 3
2002 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet    
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 16 19 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Closed Lower 9 12 11 8 14 16 11 11 10 11 13
Penetrated Low 6 8 10 7 14 14 10 9 9 9 9
Scenario Percentage 67% 67% 91% 88% 100% 88% 91% 82% 90% 82% 69%
Avg Max Decline 4.48% 4.22% 3.98% 5.45% 7.05% 8.23% 6.29% 5.49% 5.43% 4.70% 11.77%
Max Decline 7.08% 10.98% 8.43% 9.41% 16.20% 20.77% 12.67% 13.97% 10.91% 7.48% 34.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 13 18 15 19 15 14 17 20 15 15
Avg Max Increase -1.30% -1.45% -2.77% -2.51% -2.30% -2.24% -1.98% -1.78% -1.82% -2.20% -2.12%
Max Increase -1.83% -3.22% -13.20% -5.60% -8.34% -7.13% -6.39% -5.36% -5.20% -5.23% -7.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 11 14 9 10 6 5 6 15 12 6
2002 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes           Yes Yes
Action   Yes   Yes           Yes  
High 339.50 332.75 330.00 331.00 317.25 335.50 387.75 440.00 521.50 517.25 479.00
Low 326.00 318.00 318.00 305.75 305.00 306.50 335.50 381.00 440.75 457.25 417.50
Close/Last 330.00 318.00 326.00 306.75 315.75 333.50 381.00 437.75 506.25 469.75 450.75