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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(MGE) as of Oct 04, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 17 21 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Higher 9 7 10 11 9 12 13 8 8 11 12
Exceeded High 4 6 9 10 7 9 9 5 3 7 7
Scenario Percentage 44% 86% 90% 91% 78% 75% 69% 63% 38% 64% 58%
Avg Max Increase 6.88% 4.67% 5.45% 5.80% 13.89% 10.42% 14.15% 20.48% 18.72% 16.53% 8.18%
Max Increase 11.78% 8.98% 21.79% 13.66% 38.68% 34.87% 49.21% 34.00% 33.33% 37.67% 19.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase 15 15 15 14 18 11 13 17 22 18 13
Avg Max Decline -1.42% -1.12% -1.54% -1.46% -1.93% -1.34% -1.31% -1.10% -2.81% -2.11% -0.65%
Max Decline -5.28% -2.95% -4.02% -3.51% -5.36% -4.22% -6.56% -1.71% -8.00% -7.17% -2.15%
Avg Days to Max Decline 4 14 7 11 7 11 3 5 5 7 5
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes          
Action Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No          
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 17 21 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Lower 7 14 13 12 15 12 9 16 16 13 12
Penetrated Low 6 12 8 9 12 11 8 15 14 11 6
Scenario Percentage 86% 86% 62% 75% 80% 92% 89% 94% 88% 85% 50%
Avg Max Decline 6.74% 3.82% 4.93% 4.58% 3.92% 4.30% 5.11% 9.06% 9.17% 5.83% 11.22%
Max Decline 16.88% 11.46% 12.20% 7.61% 11.37% 7.99% 9.59% 18.66% 20.50% 11.03% 32.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 16 21 18 18 19 23 21 15 11 11
Avg Max Increase -1.48% -0.73% -2.35% -1.61% -3.19% -2.89% -4.88% -2.30% -2.55% -2.97% -2.47%
Max Increase -3.12% -1.99% -3.79% -3.12% -11.68% -13.00% -12.75% -6.27% -7.89% -8.83% -7.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase 12 11 12 12 14 12 11 9 6 9 7
2004 Contract Condition             Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action             Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
High 370.00 373.50 380.00 403.00 421.00 453.50 453.00 446.00 432.00 395.50 364.00
Low 346.00 359.00 362.00 378.00 385.00 402.50 410.00 399.00 384.00 349.00 327.00
Close/Last 362.00 373.00 376.75 399.00 417.00 435.75 424.00 406.50 388.50 349.50 348.25