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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(MGE) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 15 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Higher 8 6 9 9 8 11 13 7 8 10 11
Exceeded High 3 5 8 8 6 9 9 5 3 6 7
Scenario Percentage 38% 83% 89% 89% 75% 82% 69% 71% 38% 60% 64%
Avg Max Increase 7.51% 3.99% 4.66% 4.88% 14.75% 10.42% 14.15% 20.48% 18.72% 17.47% 8.18%
Max Increase 11.78% 8.98% 21.79% 8.21% 38.68% 34.87% 49.21% 34.00% 33.33% 37.67% 19.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase 19 15 14 14 18 11 13 17 22 18 13
Avg Max Decline -1.62% -0.75% -1.78% -1.33% -1.67% -1.34% -1.31% -1.10% -2.81% -2.26% -0.65%
Max Decline -5.28% -1.59% -4.02% -3.46% -5.36% -4.22% -6.56% -1.71% -8.00% -7.17% -2.15%
Avg Days to Max Decline 4 12 8 12 7 11 3 5 5 7 5
2003 Contract Condition       Yes       Yes   Yes Yes
Action       Yes       No   Yes Not Yet
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 15 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Lower 6 13 12 12 14 11 7 15 14 12 11
Penetrated Low 5 11 8 9 11 10 6 14 13 10 6
Scenario Percentage 83% 85% 67% 75% 79% 91% 86% 93% 93% 83% 55%
Avg Max Decline 4.71% 3.13% 4.93% 4.58% 3.86% 4.29% 4.79% 8.70% 8.66% 5.77% 11.22%
Max Decline 6.85% 5.51% 12.20% 7.61% 11.37% 7.99% 9.59% 18.66% 20.50% 11.03% 32.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline 18 14 21 18 17 19 21 20 16 11 11
Avg Max Increase -1.69% -0.74% -2.35% -1.61% -3.17% -3.13% -3.52% -2.01% -2.60% -3.03% -2.47%
Max Increase -3.12% -1.99% -3.79% -3.12% -11.68% -13.00% -5.96% -6.02% -7.89% -8.83% -7.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 12 12 12 15 13 11 10 6 10 7
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes    
Action Yes Yes No   Yes Yes Yes   No    
High 419.00 406.00 382.00 367.50 377.00 365.00 354.00 382.50 361.25 368.50 406.50
Low 397.00 372.50 336.00 336.50 353.00 345.50 336.50 337.50 330.00 330.50 360.00
Close/Last 404.25 379.50 336.00 358.25 353.00 352.25 339.25 358.50 336.75 366.50 370.00