MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(MGE) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	16	22	22	24	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Higher	11	11	15	7	9	12	8	13	13	8	11
Exceeded High	9	11	7	5	7	10	7	10	7	5	7
Scenario Percentage	82%	100%	47%	71%	78%	83%	88%	77%	54%	63%	64%
Avg Max Increase	7.38%	4.80%	4.86%	4.59%	6.89%	5.80%	13.67%	10.68%	16.17%	20.45%	7.02%
Max Increase	15.87%	9.62%	14.38%	9.48%	22.73%	12.02%	39.92%	36.23%	49.92%	35.01%	11.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase	12	15	19	18	15	14	16	14	14	17	15
Avg Max Decline	-0.52%	-0.49%	-1.50%	-1.02%	-2.25%	-1.84%	-2.63%	-1.38%	-1.70%	-1.57%	-1.72%
Max Decline	-3.31%	-2.60%	-4.90%	-1.81%	-6.71%	-4.32%	-5.57%	-4.39%	-7.81%	-4.72%	-8.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	8	12	9	20	10	8	11	3	4	5
2006 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	16	22	22	24	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Lower	5	11	7	17	16	13	17	12	12	17	14
Penetrated Low	3	8	6	16	11	12	13	11	8	15	11
Scenario Percentage	60%	73%	86%	94%	69%	92%	76%	92%	67%	88%	79%
Avg Max Decline	9.18%	6.05%	4.73%	4.83%	4.90%	3.70%	4.16%	4.52%	5.38%	7.24%	9.46%
Max Decline	12.65%	10.34%	6.80%	13.80%	12.76%	9.59%	10.92%	9.01%	10.62%	13.20%	42.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	23	18	19	20	16	20	20	21	17	13
Avg Max Increase	-0.02%	-1.28%	-3.11%	-1.31%	-1.50%	-1.37%	-3.20%	-1.81%	-3.17%	-2.28%	-1.75%
Max Increase	-0.78%	-3.74%	-7.02%	-4.71%	-4.73%	-3.24%	-11.25%	-5.29%	-5.91%	-6.46%	-5.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	11	14	11	10	8	13	10	7	10	7
2006 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	No				Not Yet
High	382.00	391.00	402.00	379.00	390.00	408.50	442.00	444.00	447.00	428.00
Low	355.00	353.00	373.00	358.00	360.00	377.50	397.50	395.00	407.00	419.50
Close/Last	355.50	387.00	375.50	368.50	387.25	402.75	435.50	410.00	420.25	422.75