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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(MGE) as of Jul 08, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 13 19 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Higher 8 10 12 7 7 10 6 12 13 6 10
Exceeded High 7 10 6 5 5 8 5 10 7 4 6
Scenario Percentage 88% 100% 50% 71% 71% 80% 83% 83% 54% 67% 60%
Avg Max Increase 6.73% 4.95% 5.13% 4.59% 6.21% 5.20% 17.05% 10.68% 16.17% 24.69% 8.97%
Max Increase 13.60% 9.62% 14.38% 9.48% 22.73% 7.99% 39.92% 36.23% 49.92% 35.01% 17.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase 12 15 20 18 10 13 16 14 14 18 17
Avg Max Decline -0.45% -0.40% -1.38% -1.02% -2.18% -1.83% -1.82% -1.38% -1.70% -0.78% -1.50%
Max Decline -3.31% -2.60% -4.90% -1.81% -4.46% -4.32% -5.57% -4.39% -7.81% -2.30% -8.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 8 13 9 12 12 7 11 3 3 4
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes     Yes       Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes No     Yes       Not Yet Not Yet
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 13 19 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Lower 5 9 7 14 15 12 16 10 9 16 12
Penetrated Low 3 6 6 13 11 11 12 9 7 14 10
Scenario Percentage 60% 67% 86% 93% 73% 92% 75% 90% 78% 88% 83%
Avg Max Decline 9.18% 6.10% 4.73% 4.11% 4.90% 3.97% 4.00% 4.01% 4.63% 7.90% 9.89%
Max Decline 12.65% 10.34% 6.80% 12.24% 12.76% 9.59% 10.92% 7.06% 8.54% 13.20% 42.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 24 18 17 20 17 20 20 19 18 15
Avg Max Increase -0.02% -1.02% -3.11% -1.09% -1.50% -1.44% -3.18% -2.18% -2.87% -2.03% -1.69%
Max Increase -0.78% -3.74% -7.02% -4.71% -4.73% -3.24% -11.25% -5.29% -5.91% -6.46% -5.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase 4 12 14 13 10 9 14 12 8 10 6
2003 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes    
Action       Yes No   Yes Yes No    
High 400.00 453.00 460.00 451.00 415.00 378.50 381.75 371.75 355.75 385.00 368.00
Low 371.00 395.00 439.00 408.00 356.00 356.25 359.00 347.50 337.75 339.00 345.25
Close/Last 397.00 445.00 447.75 413.00 356.00 365.75 359.25 354.25 340.50 362.00 363.00