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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(MGE) as of May 16, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 12 16 19 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Higher 3 7 9 11 13 5 8 10 6 13 14
Exceeded High 2 5 5 11 7 2 4 7 5 10 10
Scenario Percentage 67% 71% 56% 100% 54% 40% 50% 70% 83% 77% 71%
Avg Max Increase 4.94% 9.39% 8.12% 5.30% 5.40% 5.93% 6.79% 5.48% 17.35% 10.49% 6.40%
Max Increase 5.15% 18.49% 12.74% 11.91% 18.43% 10.63% 20.16% 7.13% 41.86% 44.24% 15.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase 13 26 12 14 16 16 13 17 17 13 12
Avg Max Decline -4.09% -3.29% -0.08% -0.44% -1.07% -2.60% -2.69% -1.97% -0.65% -1.56% -1.33%
Max Decline -4.28% -6.80% -3.46% -2.33% -4.90% -4.33% -5.13% -4.50% -3.10% -4.48% -6.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 8 8 4 4 20 11 13 15 8 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes      
Action Yes Yes Yes Yes       No      
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 12 16 19 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Lower 8 9 10 10 7 16 14 12 16 8 8
Penetrated Low 8 7 5 8 6 14 10 12 12 5 3
Scenario Percentage 100% 78% 50% 80% 86% 88% 71% 100% 75% 63% 38%
Avg Max Decline 7.55% 6.55% 7.37% 5.48% 4.38% 4.91% 4.25% 4.37% 3.80% 2.17% 3.27%
Max Decline 15.07% 11.74% 14.58% 10.10% 6.36% 11.03% 11.33% 10.96% 9.20% 5.48% 6.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline 14 14 19 24 13 19 21 18 16 9 8
Avg Max Increase -1.38% -0.96% -0.95% -1.42% -2.39% -1.24% -1.96% -1.39% -3.61% -1.90% -0.40%
Max Increase -6.61% -4.63% -1.86% -4.51% -3.69% -4.04% -4.61% -3.06% -11.06% -5.80% -0.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase 5 6 7 12 9 14 8 9 14 7 2
2003 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action         Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Not Yet
High 336.00 382.00 423.50 489.00 492.00 480.00 430.75 389.50 389.00 387.00 363.00
Low 313.00 336.00 376.50 421.50 463.00 420.50 369.00 366.50 368.00 355.00 341.00
Close/Last 332.75 376.00 419.25 479.00 474.75 426.75 370.00 376.25 371.00 361.25 343.00