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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for S & P Midcap 400 Index as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Higher 14 14 17 14 14 14 8 12 10 13 14
Exceeded High 13 13 14 12 12 12 8 8 8 11 13
Scenario Percentage 93% 93% 82% 86% 86% 86% 100% 67% 80% 85% 93%
Avg Max Increase 5.99% 6.69% 5.58% 6.75% 5.00% 5.30% 5.38% 4.56% 7.17% 7.94% 3.61%
Max Increase 13.44% 12.73% 12.84% 13.62% 12.90% 12.88% 12.40% 15.32% 17.58% 14.14% 8.00%
Avg Days To Max Increase 19 21 22 20 20 18 16 17 18 21 16
Avg Max Decline -0.48% -0.31% -1.66% -1.25% -1.10% -0.75% -1.58% -1.31% -2.43% -1.28% -0.38%
Max Decline -3.57% -2.96% -5.22% -4.63% -6.30% -6.04% -4.59% -3.68% -12.38% -4.62% -2.57%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 10 11 6 10 8 9 6 7 8 6
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Closed Lower 7 8 5 8 8 8 14 10 12 8 8
Penetrated Low 4 5 4 5 5 4 10 9 8 2 8
Scenario Percentage 57% 63% 80% 63% 63% 50% 71% 90% 67% 25% 100%
Avg Max Decline 6.38% 6.49% 4.33% 5.98% 9.13% 11.37% 10.29% 7.38% 8.93% 5.19% 17.74%
Max Decline 7.43% 13.05% 5.98% 12.80% 27.18% 21.37% 22.21% 19.49% 30.82% 9.42% 35.24%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 13 13 24 24 20 17 17 17 19 13
Avg Max Increase 0.15% -2.42% -0.81% -2.05% -1.35% -0.13% -0.92% -4.23% -1.24% -1.39% -5.60%
Max Increase -0.53% -3.37% -2.03% -4.69% -3.46% -0.85% -5.17% -13.52% -2.96% -2.43% -11.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase 1 11 6 19 9 6 9 15 7 4 23
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes             Yes    
Action Yes Yes             No    
High 448.02 419.19 423.53 440.07 474.54 495.12 505.15 518.96 532.04 551.09 568.04
Low 408.83 391.23 381.82 407.81 431.88 472.86 473.90 477.91 507.99 510.42 545.26
Close/Last 416.91 406.44 409.47 438.79 474.54 480.19 496.90 518.78 510.42 548.52 567.00