MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Live Cattle(CME) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	36	39	39	40	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher	24	26	28	21	20	24	18	18	25	20	24
Exceeded High	22	23	24	16	18	18	16	18	23	16	18
Scenario Percentage	92%	88%	86%	76%	90%	75%	89%	100%	92%	80%	75%
Avg Max Increase	3.53%	4.90%	4.08%	5.28%	5.68%	5.84%	5.55%	7.62%	5.05%	7.12%	4.48%
Max Increase	9.11%	14.10%	14.44%	14.08%	20.35%	13.11%	21.44%	27.14%	13.64%	25.05%	18.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	16	17	19	18	13	16	14	15	14	17
Avg Max Decline	-1.11%	-0.46%	-1.25%	-0.88%	-1.37%	-1.21%	-1.76%	-1.62%	-1.87%	-1.58%	-0.67%
Max Decline	-3.69%	-1.68%	-4.11%	-2.74%	-5.37%	-7.13%	-4.03%	-10.28%	-8.40%	-6.73%	-3.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline	12	9	6	5	6	7	10	7	5	9	4
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action	Yes	No

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	36	39	39	40	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower	12	13	11	19	20	17	23	23	16	21	17
Penetrated Low	8	4	8	12	15	13	17	17	14	15	15
Scenario Percentage	67%	31%	73%	63%	75%	76%	74%	74%	88%	71%	88%
Avg Max Decline	3.72%	7.33%	6.25%	6.69%	6.54%	6.05%	5.49%	5.88%	5.00%	6.57%	8.59%
Max Decline	12.82%	13.48%	12.91%	14.73%	25.65%	22.84%	14.26%	15.45%	13.56%	23.20%	25.03%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	16	19	19	17	19	22	19	15	11	15
Avg Max Increase	-1.01%	-1.62%	-1.61%	-0.52%	-1.22%	-1.28%	-1.85%	-2.25%	-2.21%	-1.60%	-2.31%
Max Increase	-3.67%	-2.70%	-3.39%	-1.96%	-3.76%	-2.33%	-5.22%	-6.56%	-6.02%	-4.87%	-6.42%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	13	5	7	9	8	10	12	11	5	6
2006 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	87.500	89.500	89.275	87.700	86.050	81.775	81.000
Low	85.300	87.050	86.950	85.100	79.700	78.350	79.400
Close/Last	87.325	89.075	87.450	85.700	79.750	79.650	80.975