MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Live Cattle(CME) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 33 35 36 38 38 38 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Higher 15 16 23 26 23 18 21 21 18 17 22
Exceeded High 14 13 22 26 18 15 18 17 15 16 18
Scenario Percentage 93% 81% 96% 100% 78% 83% 86% 81% 83% 94% 82%
Avg Max Increase 2.92% 3.61% 4.54% 4.46% 4.76% 5.79% 7.93% 6.70% 6.53% 7.57% 4.09%
Max Increase 5.28% 8.67% 19.17% 12.63% 16.50% 15.89% 22.50% 20.21% 16.21% 25.20% 9.32%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 15 18 14 16 19 22 14 18 12 13
Avg Max Decline -1.80% -0.80% -1.25% -0.78% -1.00% -1.03% -1.15% -1.63% -2.00% -1.39% -0.86%
Max Decline -6.31% -3.36% -3.71% -4.32% -3.95% -3.09% -4.08% -5.48% -5.01% -5.02% -3.43%
Avg Days to Max Decline 11 8 8 7 5 5 7 8 14 8 2
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 33 35 36 38 38 38 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Lower 17 18 13 11 15 20 17 17 20 22 16
Penetrated Low 13 11 11 6 11 13 16 14 13 17 11
Scenario Percentage 76% 61% 85% 55% 73% 65% 94% 82% 65% 77% 69%
Avg Max Decline 3.72% 4.40% 5.02% 6.19% 5.60% 6.47% 6.88% 6.59% 7.31% 6.37% 9.19%
Max Decline 10.78% 16.33% 17.02% 14.82% 12.84% 14.09% 23.21% 26.75% 19.32% 16.00% 36.92%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 13 17 18 20 21 19 19 21 12 16
Avg Max Increase -0.90% -0.73% -1.10% -1.50% -1.54% -0.73% -1.52% -1.46% -1.75% -1.47% -3.15%
Max Increase -2.35% -2.07% -3.29% -2.22% -3.54% -2.22% -5.21% -3.01% -3.58% -4.35% -11.78%
Avg Days to Max Increase 3 4 7 12 6 8 11 11 7 7 7
2003 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes          
Action       Yes Yes No          
High 69.725 69.700 70.675 71.400 70.900 69.250 67.900 68.500 70.675 71.500 78.850
Low 67.050 67.000 68.250 69.100 67.350 65.400 65.500 66.850 67.150 66.950 69.175
Close/Last 68.300 68.625 70.400 70.225 69.275 67.350 67.500 68.150 69.750 69.875 78.625