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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Live Cattle(CME) as of May 28, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 34 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Closed Higher 15 20 21 14 18 22 23 23 28 24 23
Exceeded High 13 19 14 11 18 14 20 22 22 21 18
Scenario Percentage 87% 95% 67% 79% 100% 64% 87% 96% 79% 88% 78%
Avg Max Increase 5.10% 5.93% 4.03% 3.80% 3.61% 4.31% 6.25% 6.87% 8.50% 7.58% 5.37%
Max Increase 22.82% 28.72% 11.79% 10.35% 8.50% 9.13% 15.90% 15.44% 23.63% 23.61% 17.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 19 13 15 21 18 18 21 18 14 14
Avg Max Decline -1.01% -0.87% -1.55% -1.59% -2.11% -1.27% -1.94% -1.27% -1.41% -1.31% -0.89%
Max Decline -3.66% -3.41% -7.69% -3.52% -8.67% -3.62% -6.20% -3.48% -4.87% -4.16% -2.90%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 9 8 17 15 10 9 12 6 8 2
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes   Yes Yes Yes No No   Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 34 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Closed Lower 19 16 16 23 18 15 13 13 9 13 14
Penetrated Low 12 11 13 16 14 7 9 8 7 8 11
Scenario Percentage 63% 69% 81% 70% 78% 47% 69% 62% 78% 62% 79%
Avg Max Decline 5.45% 5.13% 4.23% 4.98% 4.41% 4.00% 6.20% 8.44% 6.40% 8.47% 9.76%
Max Decline 12.45% 12.27% 12.81% 17.84% 12.96% 7.65% 15.83% 14.02% 11.26% 16.04% 21.77%
Avg Days To Max Decline 19 19 11 13 19 15 11 21 16 11 16
Avg Max Increase -1.23% -1.16% -1.25% -1.00% -1.68% -1.56% -1.29% -1.91% -2.94% -1.17% -3.11%
Max Increase -4.45% -3.64% -4.22% -4.40% -7.26% -3.38% -4.52% -4.32% -5.34% -3.48% -8.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase 8 6 4 6 11 9 4 13 10 9 7
2004 Contract Condition   Yes           Yes      
Action   No           No      
High 76.000 76.750 77.900 77.975 80.000 85.550 84.600 84.550 77.700 77.450 83.400
Low 73.450 73.850 74.300 75.250 77.125 78.400 80.850 68.600 70.500 71.350 75.700
Close/Last 75.700 75.500 77.000 77.525 78.850 81.475 83.925 71.500 73.425 76.850 79.825