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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Lumber(CME) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 19 24 29 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32
Closed Higher 8 11 18 22 20 21 15 16 14 18 15
Exceeded High 4 11 14 18 19 18 12 11 11 11 5
Scenario Percentage 50% 100% 78% 82% 95% 86% 80% 69% 79% 61% 33%
Avg Max Increase 9.61% 7.67% 6.23% 7.22% 10.60% 9.53% 9.78% 13.80% 16.01% 8.80% 5.25%
Max Increase 23.27% 25.83% 14.46% 13.94% 40.42% 55.50% 33.07% 54.48% 29.83% 26.23% 9.22%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 14 20 23 20 17 19 19 19 11 8
Avg Max Decline -1.31% -1.76% -1.89% -2.87% -2.93% -2.31% -2.30% -1.93% -1.91% -1.98% -1.26%
Max Decline -3.23% -3.50% -7.04% -7.63% -11.69% -8.53% -7.23% -4.58% -3.69% -9.18% -2.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline 15 8 10 12 10 9 10 12 5 4 2
2006 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes       Yes Yes  
Action   No   Yes Yes       Not Yet    
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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 19 24 29 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32
Closed Lower 11 13 11 8 11 11 17 16 18 14 17
Penetrated Low 9 6 7 5 7 10 13 13 13 12 10
Scenario Percentage 82% 46% 64% 63% 64% 91% 76% 81% 72% 86% 59%
Avg Max Decline 7.56% 4.95% 4.33% 8.95% 7.23% 7.38% 8.93% 10.56% 13.24% 10.24% 14.31%
Max Decline 15.01% 8.65% 9.68% 15.43% 13.65% 23.99% 26.07% 19.64% 32.97% 24.37% 37.94%
Avg Days To Max Decline 24 17 12 14 19 18 18 15 12 12 17
Avg Max Increase -0.91% -4.49% -2.05% -1.10% -2.13% -4.10% -1.92% -2.89% -2.75% -2.30% -2.93%
Max Increase -1.92% -12.19% -8.45% -3.49% -5.17% -15.42% -8.46% -11.35% -8.46% -8.95% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase 12 9 6 3 10 10 10 6 8 3 -66
2006 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes Yes Yes      
Action     No     Yes Yes Not Yet      
High 306.0 352.9 334.7 352.6 357.1 374.5 360.9 349.6 359.5 358.0  
Low 300.0 315.0 320.7 328.0 335.0 347.0 336.7 329.9 329.9 353.1  
Close/Last 306.0 338.2 328.0 337.0 354.6 352.7 340.9 336.2 353.2 354.4