MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Lumber(CME) as of Jul 29, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 19 24 28 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31
Closed Higher 8 11 18 21 19 20 14 15 14 17 15
Exceeded High 4 11 14 17 18 17 11 11 11 10 5
Scenario Percentage 50% 100% 78% 81% 95% 85% 79% 73% 79% 59% 33%
Avg Max Increase 9.61% 7.67% 6.23% 7.22% 10.66% 9.75% 10.57% 13.80% 16.01% 10.14% 5.71%
Max Increase 23.27% 25.83% 14.46% 13.94% 40.42% 55.50% 33.07% 54.48% 29.83% 26.23% 9.22%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 14 20 22 20 17 19 19 19 12 8
Avg Max Decline -1.31% -1.76% -1.89% -2.98% -3.03% -2.24% -2.07% -1.93% -1.91% -2.00% -1.26%
Max Decline -3.23% -3.50% -7.04% -7.63% -11.69% -8.53% -7.23% -4.58% -3.69% -9.18% -2.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline 15 8 10 12 9 9 10 12 5 5 2
2004 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action     Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 19 24 28 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31
Closed Lower 11 13 10 8 11 11 17 16 17 14 16
Penetrated Low 9 6 6 5 7 10 13 13 12 13 10
Scenario Percentage 82% 46% 60% 63% 64% 91% 76% 81% 71% 93% 63%
Avg Max Decline 7.56% 4.95% 4.41% 8.95% 7.23% 7.38% 8.93% 10.56% 13.52% 10.11% 14.75%
Max Decline 15.01% 8.65% 9.68% 15.43% 13.65% 23.99% 26.07% 19.64% 32.97% 24.37% 37.94%
Avg Days To Max Decline 24 17 14 14 19 18 18 15 11 13 17
Avg Max Increase -0.91% -4.49% -2.47% -1.10% -2.13% -4.10% -1.92% -2.89% -2.51% -3.23% -4.03%
Max Increase -1.92% -12.19% -8.45% -3.49% -5.17% -15.42% -8.46% -11.35% -8.46% -8.95% -15.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase 12 9 6 3 10 10 10 6 6 5 -66
2004 Contract Condition         Yes         Yes Yes
Action         No         Yes Not Yet
High   311.0 308.0 335.8 332.9 354.9 369.9 373.0 419.5 429.5 410.0
Low   297.6 284.2 295.2 309.5 332.3 333.4 341.4 370.0 387.1 373.5
Close/Last   297.6 305.0 334.9 332.0 338.1 368.0 369.2 418.2 405.5 376.5