MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Lumber(CME) as of May 28, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 17 25 29 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
Closed Higher 6 12 15 11 19 22 21 20 14 15 14
Exceeded High 2 8 11 10 15 17 20 15 9 11 8
Scenario Percentage 33% 67% 73% 91% 79% 77% 95% 75% 64% 73% 57%
Avg Max Increase 2.29% 8.52% 7.54% 10.14% 7.28% 8.98% 11.10% 12.51% 12.00% 11.57% 7.62%
Max Increase 2.66% 16.32% 21.81% 26.86% 16.86% 15.19% 50.87% 58.10% 23.49% 38.39% 14.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 20 13 15 21 20 18 15 20 11 10
Avg Max Decline -0.44% -1.54% -1.28% -2.08% -1.53% -3.46% -3.77% -2.09% -2.94% -1.87% -1.04%
Max Decline -0.47% -3.87% -4.77% -3.27% -5.18% -8.03% -13.01% -9.52% -7.87% -6.87% -2.30%
Avg Days to Max Decline 2 10 11 8 8 13 11 7 12 4 2
2004 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 17 25 29 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
Closed Lower 11 13 14 19 12 9 10 11 17 16 17
Penetrated Low 8 10 12 11 7 4 8 8 14 15 15
Scenario Percentage 73% 77% 86% 58% 58% 44% 80% 73% 82% 94% 88%
Avg Max Decline 8.54% 9.45% 7.45% 6.21% 7.39% 8.70% 6.07% 9.51% 9.58% 11.38% 11.95%
Max Decline 13.62% 19.72% 15.62% 19.81% 17.78% 11.51% 15.61% 26.16% 30.25% 32.99% 39.14%
Avg Days To Max Decline 22 24 22 16 19 16 15 19 19 9 11
Avg Max Increase -2.43% -1.34% -1.73% -3.32% -2.58% -2.22% -2.04% -4.76% -3.01% -2.73% -2.92%
Max Increase -6.86% -3.12% -7.22% -12.13% -8.83% -4.77% -5.96% -17.38% -12.29% -10.13% -15.40%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 7 6 5 7 4 12 11 11 6 5
2004 Contract Condition       Yes              
Action       Yes              
High   299.6 309.9 322.5 308.0 333.0 334.9 357.5 385.0 388.1 435.1
Low   266.0 280.8 298.2 284.7 291.1 302.2 330.0 333.5 346.6 383.5
Close/Last   278.0 302.5 298.2 298.3 326.2 329.7 337.9 376.2 381.1 434.2