MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Lumber(CME) as of May 28, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	23	27	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	8	11	12	11	15	10	21	22	21	18	12
Exceeded High	6	8	10	8	9	10	18	19	18	13	5
Scenario Percentage	75%	73%	83%	73%	60%	100%	86%	86%	86%	72%	42%
Avg Max Increase	7.90%	4.95%	5.02%	9.25%	9.24%	9.23%	9.04%	10.24%	14.07%	14.60%	12.12%
Max Increase	14.95%	11.35%	11.06%	14.31%	19.66%	29.85%	22.31%	23.15%	65.75%	62.41%	27.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase	11	16	17	21	14	16	20	20	19	11	9
Avg Max Decline	-0.66%	-0.75%	-2.07%	-1.68%	-1.82%	-2.70%	-2.72%	-3.91%	-4.04%	-1.85%	-1.85%
Max Decline	-3.19%	-4.45%	-8.25%	-4.40%	-6.23%	-8.58%	-7.40%	-11.42%	-10.84%	-6.62%	-4.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	6	8	7	15	12	11	12	11	4	2
2004 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	23	27	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	10	12	15	19	14	21	10	8	10	13	19
Penetrated Low	6	11	12	13	12	14	6	3	7	9	18
Scenario Percentage	60%	92%	80%	68%	86%	67%	60%	38%	70%	69%	95%
Avg Max Decline	8.40%	7.02%	7.74%	10.24%	8.06%	6.29%	7.82%	8.43%	9.09%	9.35%	7.98%
Max Decline	14.84%	18.78%	15.02%	21.23%	17.94%	20.19%	17.59%	13.08%	17.89%	19.91%	24.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	20	18	24	19	15	15	24	18	6	9
Avg Max Increase	-1.43%	-2.99%	-1.83%	-1.73%	-2.75%	-3.37%	-2.83%	-4.18%	-1.77%	-2.20%	-2.49%
Max Increase	-3.11%	-9.30%	-4.56%	-4.33%	-8.56%	-11.67%	-5.91%	-6.31%	-7.20%	-9.32%	-15.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase	22	8	11	9	10	4	8	5	9	8	5
2004 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes
Action				No			Yes
High		269.9	305.9	300.0	308.0	323.9	305.6	326.4	329.9	365.0	400.0
Low		258.5	269.9	267.0	278.0	296.1	283.7	283.4	293.4	320.1	328.6
Close/Last		265.2	291.0	275.2	304.5	310.0	298.9	322.7	326.5	333.0	385.0