MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Lumber(CME) as of Apr 17, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	23	26	29	29	30	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher	8	11	11	11	14	9	21	21	20	17	11
Exceeded High	6	8	9	8	8	9	18	18	17	12	5
Scenario Percentage	75%	73%	82%	73%	57%	100%	86%	86%	85%	71%	45%
Avg Max Increase	7.90%	4.95%	4.92%	9.25%	9.60%	9.67%	9.04%	10.08%	13.58%	14.14%	10.59%
Max Increase	14.95%	11.35%	11.06%	14.31%	19.66%	29.85%	22.31%	23.15%	65.75%	62.41%	19.78%
Avg Days To Max Increase	11	16	16	21	15	15	20	20	18	11	9
Avg Max Decline	-0.66%	-0.75%	-1.39%	-1.68%	-2.14%	-2.05%	-2.72%	-3.62%	-4.16%	-1.89%	-1.85%
Max Decline	-3.19%	-4.45%	-4.30%	-4.40%	-6.23%	-4.24%	-7.40%	-11.42%	-10.84%	-6.62%	-4.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	6	7	7	17	9	11	12	11	4	2
2003 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes				No	Yes		Yes

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	23	26	29	29	30	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower	10	12	15	18	14	21	9	8	10	13	19
Penetrated Low	6	11	12	13	12	14	5	3	7	9	18
Scenario Percentage	60%	92%	80%	72%	86%	67%	56%	38%	70%	69%	95%
Avg Max Decline	8.40%	7.02%	7.74%	10.24%	8.06%	6.29%	8.35%	8.43%	9.09%	9.29%	7.92%
Max Decline	14.84%	18.78%	15.02%	21.23%	17.94%	20.19%	17.59%	13.08%	17.89%	19.91%	24.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	20	18	24	19	15	17	24	18	6	8
Avg Max Increase	-1.43%	-2.99%	-1.83%	-1.73%	-2.75%	-3.37%	-2.92%	-4.18%	-1.77%	-2.20%	-2.31%
Max Increase	-3.11%	-9.30%	-4.56%	-4.33%	-8.56%	-11.67%	-5.91%	-6.31%	-7.20%	-9.32%	-15.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase	22	8	11	9	10	4	9	5	9	8	4
2003 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
High		314.0	301.0	301.1	273.5	258.9	266.2	250.8	257.3	276.0	287.6
Low		290.0	284.0	267.8	258.2	239.0	243.6	238.0	221.6	221.0	228.3
Close/Last		294.2	300.0	273.0	258.5	244.9	245.1	249.5	226.1	273.6	232.6