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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(KCBT) as of Oct 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 21 26 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
Closed Higher 11 9 12 13 13 8 13 14 17 16 16
Exceeded High 7 4 10 9 7 4 9 10 15 10 11
Scenario Percentage 64% 44% 83% 69% 54% 50% 69% 71% 88% 63% 69%
Avg Max Increase 8.07% 20.43% 10.86% 14.50% 16.67% 11.23% 11.88% 9.84% 7.35% 7.53% 4.15%
Max Increase 16.41% 37.67% 34.95% 40.64% 30.26% 26.25% 32.33% 18.88% 18.11% 17.71% 8.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 20 15 13 18 16 21 15 16 10 12
Avg Max Decline -1.09% -1.57% -2.15% -1.93% -1.06% -2.23% -2.72% -1.46% -1.33% -2.35% -0.88%
Max Decline -2.73% -3.82% -6.18% -9.64% -3.57% -6.87% -8.20% -5.43% -3.43% -5.31% -1.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 14 12 3 4 8 6 6 5 10 2
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes             Yes  
Action Yes Yes Yes             Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 21 26 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
Closed Lower 10 17 14 14 15 20 15 14 11 12 12
Penetrated Low 10 14 12 12 15 17 11 9 8 8 10
Scenario Percentage 100% 82% 86% 86% 100% 85% 73% 64% 73% 67% 83%
Avg Max Decline 6.13% 4.80% 4.91% 4.65% 8.36% 8.06% 6.64% 7.27% 8.22% 6.54% 8.58%
Max Decline 9.78% 11.75% 12.23% 9.53% 19.95% 20.10% 21.33% 17.01% 12.59% 15.75% 19.58%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 22 20 17 18 14 12 20 20 17 14
Avg Max Increase -1.29% -3.15% -2.77% -1.99% -1.80% -1.98% -1.90% -1.76% -2.12% -2.34% -1.55%
Max Increase -4.02% -13.04% -6.16% -7.88% -5.50% -7.08% -7.17% -6.08% -6.85% -4.75% -6.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase 10 17 13 7 10 5 5 5 8 4 4
2004 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action       Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes    
High 408.50 410.00 439.00 443.00 444.00 423.00 387.50 358.00 367.00 354.00 344.50
Low 386.00 386.00 383.00 397.25 389.00 372.25 346.00 324.25 332.00 328.25 337.00
Close/Last 400.75 401.50 424.25 413.50 396.00 376.50 348.50 342.50 336.75 347.00 339.00