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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(KCBT) as of Oct 04, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 22 26 26 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29
Closed Higher 13 10 12 16 9 13 12 13 9 12 17
Exceeded High 9 6 10 13 5 11 9 7 4 8 13
Scenario Percentage 69% 60% 83% 81% 56% 85% 75% 54% 44% 67% 76%
Avg Max Increase 4.48% 7.78% 7.34% 7.66% 18.65% 11.11% 15.46% 18.01% 13.07% 11.84% 4.34%
Max Increase 8.43% 10.21% 24.28% 16.93% 40.83% 36.57% 42.94% 31.76% 32.09% 33.24% 16.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase 15 17 14 18 20 14 13 19 22 13 13
Avg Max Decline -1.57% -2.03% -1.38% -1.22% -2.09% -1.49% -1.89% -1.13% -2.27% -2.01% -0.69%
Max Decline -4.31% -4.57% -4.45% -5.19% -4.17% -5.16% -10.29% -3.89% -8.46% -6.59% -4.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline 13 17 4 9 9 9 3 3 8 6 2
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes   Yes   Yes          
Action Yes Yes   Yes   Yes          
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 22 26 26 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29
Closed Lower 8 15 13 12 19 14 15 16 20 17 12
Penetrated Low 6 12 11 12 16 12 12 16 18 13 6
Scenario Percentage 75% 80% 85% 100% 84% 86% 80% 100% 90% 76% 50%
Avg Max Decline 5.86% 5.45% 4.52% 5.07% 5.11% 4.66% 5.70% 9.06% 8.20% 5.87% 12.34%
Max Decline 11.82% 9.96% 11.58% 10.64% 12.11% 12.43% 10.86% 19.43% 20.03% 17.02% 34.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline 18 18 19 15 20 21 20 18 13 11 11
Avg Max Increase -2.25% -1.30% -2.00% -1.40% -3.08% -3.29% -2.66% -2.21% -2.12% -1.78% -2.29%
Max Increase -6.10% -3.45% -6.30% -5.24% -14.26% -8.67% -8.19% -6.46% -8.34% -6.86% -6.75%
Avg Days to Max Increase 10 11 9 9 16 13 8 9 6 7 6
2004 Contract Condition         Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action         Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
High 358.00 376.00 386.00 405.00 403.50 431.00 437.50 434.00 416.00 377.00 346.50
Low 330.25 353.00 355.00 380.00 378.50 374.50 389.00 382.50 361.00 333.00 312.00
Close/Last 356.00 372.00 372.00 395.00 394.25 417.00 405.00 390.75 365.50 333.75 329.75