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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(KCBT) as of Sep 30, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 20 24 24 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27
Closed Higher 12 9 12 14 9 12 12 12 9 11 16
Exceeded High 8 5 10 11 5 10 9 7 4 7 13
Scenario Percentage 67% 56% 83% 79% 56% 83% 75% 58% 44% 64% 81%
Avg Max Increase 3.99% 7.56% 7.34% 7.80% 18.65% 11.73% 15.46% 18.01% 13.07% 11.44% 4.34%
Max Increase 7.63% 10.21% 24.28% 16.93% 40.83% 36.57% 42.94% 31.76% 32.09% 33.24% 16.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 18 14 18 20 15 13 19 22 13 13
Avg Max Decline -1.66% -1.52% -1.38% -0.93% -2.09% -1.66% -1.89% -1.13% -2.27% -2.28% -0.69%
Max Decline -4.31% -2.33% -4.45% -2.99% -4.17% -5.16% -10.29% -3.89% -8.46% -6.59% -4.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline 13 15 4 7 9 10 3 3 8 7 2
2002 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action       No   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 20 24 24 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27
Closed Lower 7 14 12 12 17 13 13 15 18 16 11
Penetrated Low 5 11 10 12 14 11 11 15 16 12 6
Scenario Percentage 71% 79% 83% 100% 82% 85% 85% 100% 89% 75% 55%
Avg Max Decline 4.67% 5.04% 4.84% 5.07% 4.84% 4.80% 5.23% 8.68% 8.13% 5.61% 11.72%
Max Decline 10.22% 9.82% 11.58% 10.64% 12.11% 12.43% 10.60% 19.43% 20.03% 15.02% 34.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 18 20 15 20 23 19 18 14 10 10
Avg Max Increase -2.43% -1.31% -1.57% -1.40% -3.32% -3.41% -2.25% -1.92% -2.13% -1.61% -1.93%
Max Increase -6.10% -3.45% -5.03% -5.24% -14.26% -8.67% -8.19% -5.42% -8.34% -6.86% -6.75%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 12 9 9 17 14 8 10 6 7 6
2002 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes        
Action   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes        
High 323.50 322.00 310.50 314.50 306.50 307.00 312.00 299.00 328.00 374.00 425.00
Low 307.50 303.00 299.50 301.50 297.00 292.25 287.00 285.50 297.50 324.50 369.00
Close/Last 322.00 309.00 301.50 304.50 297.00 303.50 289.75 298.25 321.75 368.50 423.00