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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(KCBT) as of Jul 29, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29
Closed Higher 16 15 16 13 11 15 9 14 14 13 9
Exceeded High 11 13 11 6 9 11 5 11 10 7 5
Scenario Percentage 69% 87% 69% 46% 82% 73% 56% 79% 71% 54% 56%
Avg Max Increase 7.29% 5.83% 4.20% 7.76% 8.39% 8.09% 19.27% 11.46% 15.49% 18.08% 6.51%
Max Increase 12.30% 9.38% 8.77% 9.74% 25.05% 16.57% 42.27% 37.83% 41.89% 32.34% 11.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 15 11 15 14 19 21 14 12 16 13
Avg Max Decline -2.14% -1.05% -1.78% -3.89% -2.45% -1.69% -2.02% -1.43% -2.15% -0.85% -2.33%
Max Decline -5.38% -3.45% -4.24% -7.13% -9.54% -5.86% -5.02% -5.67% -10.53% -3.94% -10.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline 14 9 11 17 5 10 12 6 2 2 3
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes      
Action Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes      
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29
Closed Lower 12 13 12 15 17 12 19 14 14 16 20
Penetrated Low 8 9 9 12 14 12 16 12 13 15 17
Scenario Percentage 67% 69% 75% 80% 82% 100% 84% 86% 93% 94% 85%
Avg Max Decline 7.25% 7.38% 5.77% 5.77% 4.29% 5.28% 5.36% 4.96% 5.52% 7.72% 8.01%
Max Decline 17.44% 14.39% 11.68% 11.21% 13.11% 11.76% 13.14% 12.52% 12.05% 18.19% 42.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 21 15 19 18 15 20 20 18 16 14
Avg Max Increase -1.39% -1.84% -2.26% -1.36% -1.78% -1.58% -3.30% -2.58% -2.66% -2.42% -2.62%
Max Increase -5.48% -6.43% -6.20% -3.91% -5.63% -5.93% -15.17% -7.56% -7.60% -7.05% -14.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase 4 11 8 9 8 9 14 13 7 10 6
2004 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes     No   Yes   Yes Yes Yes
High 355.00 345.00 357.00 373.50 384.50 408.00 401.50 429.00 434.75 429.00 410.00
Low 334.00 326.00 325.50 349.00 350.00 374.00 375.75 369.50 383.00 377.25 352.00
Close/Last 344.00 342.00 353.50 372.50 369.25 392.50 390.50 417.50 400.25 383.00 358.50