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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(KCBT) as of Jul 08, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 27
Closed Higher 14 14 15 12 11 13 9 13 14 12 9
Exceeded High 9 13 10 5 9 10 5 10 10 7 5
Scenario Percentage 64% 93% 67% 42% 82% 77% 56% 77% 71% 58% 56%
Avg Max Increase 7.19% 5.83% 3.74% 7.41% 8.39% 7.97% 19.27% 12.19% 15.49% 18.08% 6.51%
Max Increase 12.30% 9.38% 7.53% 9.74% 25.05% 16.57% 42.27% 37.83% 41.89% 32.34% 11.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 15 12 15 14 18 21 15 12 16 13
Avg Max Decline -2.04% -1.05% -1.83% -3.46% -2.45% -1.27% -2.02% -1.52% -2.15% -0.85% -2.33%
Max Decline -4.99% -3.45% -4.24% -7.13% -9.54% -3.45% -5.02% -5.67% -10.53% -3.94% -10.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline 12 9 10 16 5 7 12 7 2 2 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes       Yes       Yes  
Action Yes No       No       Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 27
Closed Lower 12 12 11 14 15 12 17 13 12 15 18
Penetrated Low 8 8 8 11 13 12 14 11 12 14 15
Scenario Percentage 67% 67% 73% 79% 87% 100% 82% 85% 100% 93% 83%
Avg Max Decline 7.25% 7.69% 5.03% 5.39% 4.47% 5.28% 5.04% 5.07% 4.98% 7.69% 8.30%
Max Decline 17.44% 14.39% 9.25% 11.21% 13.11% 11.76% 13.14% 12.52% 11.33% 18.19% 42.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 21 15 18 17 15 21 20 17 15 15
Avg Max Increase -1.39% -1.98% -2.25% -1.32% -1.49% -1.58% -3.53% -2.60% -2.29% -2.09% -2.55%
Max Increase -5.48% -6.43% -6.20% -3.91% -5.49% -5.93% -15.17% -7.56% -7.60% -5.52% -14.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase 4 13 9 10 8 9 15 13 7 11 6
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes No   Yes
High 376.00 408.00 390.00 376.50 364.00 347.00 346.50 336.00 313.00 356.50 335.50
Low 343.00 366.00 357.00 346.00 325.00 322.00 325.25 300.00 294.00 295.50 299.50
Close/Last 365.25 382.75 368.00 357.50 328.50 331.25 326.00 305.50 297.00 327.25 300.25