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ScenarioSM Study for July Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2014 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | |
Closed Higher | 23 | 16 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 13 | |
Exceeded High | 16 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 3 | |
Scenario Percentage | 70% | 81% | 80% | 78% | 83% | 71% | 72% | 77% | 83% | 47% | 23% | |
Avg Max Increase | 10.65% | 13.47% | 15.78% | 14.28% | 14.49% | 14.81% | 14.53% | 19.41% | 21.20% | 25.59% | 18.96% | |
Max Increase | 34.47% | 30.79% | 52.19% | 59.47% | 48.77% | 49.16% | 33.85% | 82.60% | 115.64% | 109.13% | 38.87% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 11 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.46% | -2.06% | -1.51% | -1.34% | -2.00% | -1.46% | -2.03% | -3.77% | -3.20% | -2.24% | -1.09% | |
Max Decline | -5.27% | -11.27% | -8.11% | -6.12% | -9.98% | -6.44% | -9.36% | -12.47% | -12.38% | -6.90% | -3.16% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
2013 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | ||||||||||
Action | Yes | No |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.